Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 15

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Nouste Camp (Pau)

Referee: Kubler G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free


	Pau		Le Mans

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.3	Watch
	2.88	3.15	2.4
	2.42	3.35	2.92
	2.35	3.41	2.85	Watch
	2.84	3.15	2.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.35)	3.21 ↓ (3.41)	2.59 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pau
35%

Draw
29%

Le Mans
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

27.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

28%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Le Mans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Le Mans than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	23.1%	38.5%

Pau - Le Mans Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Le Mans will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pau: 12% – 65%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Pau (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Salles E. (G) 2. Pouilly T. 25. Ruiz J. (C) 23. Briancon A. 97. Meddah D. 3. Kalulu J. 10. Versini G. 84. Touzghar R. 21. Beusnard S. 17. Sissoko O. 7. Messi R.	98. Kocik N. (G) 18. Buades L. 21. Eyoum T. 3. Cossier I. 5. Voyer H. 22. Calodat L. 24. Robin M. 6. Quarshie E. (C) 8. Lauray A. 9. Rabillard A. 25. Gueye D.
Substitutes
14. Bobichon A. 9. Dong K. 6. Fall C. 26. Glossoa N. 19. Kante 40. Paradowski T. (G) 18. Sadik O.	31. Boisse N. 28. Colas E. 32. Hammoudi I. 1. Hatfout E. (G) 26. Oggad B. 12. Ribelin A. 27. Rossignol M.
Coaches
Usai N.	Videira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Touzghar R. ⚽, Pouilly T. (A),
27', 1 - 1, Briancon A. (Own goal),
35', Sissoko O. 🟨,
38', Beusnard S. 🟨,
39', 1 - 2, Gueye D. (Pen),
45', Versini G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Rabillard A. 🟨,
57', Messi R. ↓, Dong K. ↑,
59', Robin M. ↓, Rossignol M. ↑,
59', Rabillard A. ↓, Colas E. ↑,
66', Ruiz J. ↓, Fall C. ↑,
66', Sissoko O. ↓, Sadik O. ↑,
66', Touzghar R. ↓, Bobichon A. ↑,
68', Quarshie E. 🟨,
69', Calodat L. ↓, Ribelin A. ↑,
78', Pouilly T. ↓, Glossoa N. ↑,
81', Gueye D. ↓, Oggad B. ↑,
81', Quarshie E. ↓, Hammoudi I. ↑,
87', Hammoudi I. 🟨,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7)

Pau has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Le Mans is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Pau: Gasnier K. (Inactive) Gaspar J. (Inactive) Raveyre N. (Injury) Ruiz J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Le Mans: Cisse A. (Injury) Gomes M. (Injury) Vercruysse J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Pau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Pau won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
08.11.25	Guingamp - Pau	2:2 ✺
03.11.25	Pau - Troyes	1:1 ✺
28.10.25	Saint-Étienne - Pau	6:0 ✺
24.10.25	Pau - Dunkerque	0:3 ✺
17.10.25	Grenoble - Pau	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTLLT
- Le Mans FC
Coupe De France
15.11.25	Ivry - Le Mans	1:2 penalties ✺
French Ligue 2
08.11.25	Le Mans - Red Star	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Le Mans - Nancy	1:0 ✺
28.10.25	Laval - Le Mans	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Le Mans - Boulogne	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
08.02.19	Pau - Le Mans	0:1
31.08.18	Le Mans - Pau	2:1

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