Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 17

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Israel	5 GOLD Israel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Saint-Étienne		Bastia

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.58	3.9	5.15
	1.61	4.05	5.61
	1.59	4.14	5.17	Watch
	1.6	3.8	5
	1.62	3.75	5.46	Watch
	1.58	4	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↓ (1.76)	3.89 ↑ (3.67)	5.28 ↑ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
58.5%

Draw
23.9%

Bastia
17.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

25.5%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

24.6%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Saint-Étienne's performance.

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.7%	4.3%	0%

Saint Étienne - Bastia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Saint-Étienne (1.75) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Saint-Étienne will win (22 of 22 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Saint-Étienne will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (C) 8. Appiah D. 6. Bernauer M. 3. Nade M. 11. Old B. 28. Miladinovic I. 5. Jaber M. 10. Tardieu F. 7. Cardona I. 20. Boakye A. 22. Davitashvili Z.	30. Placide J. (G) 12. Zilliox N. 3. Guevara J. 4. Roncaglia A. 5. Ariss Z. 7. Vincent C. (C) 13. Ducrocq T. 33. Petrignani M. 10. Boutrah A. 9. Tomi F. 14. Sebas J.
Substitutes
31. El Jamali N. 35. Gadegbeku L. 27. Macon Y. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 39. Pedro K. 9. Stassin L. 2. Stojkovic S.	35. Beltaief Z. 11. Ble M. 15. Bohnert F. 29. Etoga L. 8. Karamoko I. 24. Meynadier T. 1. Olmeta L. (G)
Coaches
Horneland E.	Ray R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Sebas J. ⚽, Tomi F. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Davitashvili Z. ⚽, Bernauer M. (A),
32', Tomi F. 🟨,
34', 1 - 2, Tomi F. ⚽, Placide J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nade M. ↓, Pedro K. ↑,
49', Ducrocq T. 🟨,
53', Pedro K. 🟨,
56', Zilliox N. 🟨,
60', Miladinovic I. ↓, Stassin L. ↑,
60', Appiah D. ↓, Macon Y. ↑,
73', Sebas J. ↓, Ble M. ↑,
73', Guevara J. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
73', Cardona I. ↓, El Jamali N. ↑,
76', Ariss Z. 🟨,
81', 2 - 2, Davitashvili Z. ⚽,
83', Boakye A. 🟨,
87', Tardieu F. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Vincent C. ↓, Bohnert F. ↑,
88', Tomi F. ↓, Etoga L. ↑,
89', Petrignani M. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
90+3', Bohnert F. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 3.

Saint-Étienne is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bastia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Saint-Étienne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Saint-Étienne is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Ekwah P. (Inactive) Ferreira J. (Inactive) Lamba C. (Muscle Injury) Stassin L. (Inactive) Traore L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Knee Injury) Bathily Y. (Injury) Ble M. (Inactive) Djedje D. (Injury) Meynadier T. (Inactive) Parravicini N. (Hernia)

There are questionable in Saint-Étienne: Annan E. (Injury)

We predict that Saint-Étienne will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:8. (average 1.9:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Saint-Étienne won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:5. (average 2.4:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
French Ligue 2
06.12.25	Dunkerque - Saint-Étienne	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
29.11.25	Saint-Étienne - Ecotay Moingt	11:1 ✺
French Ligue 2
22.11.25	Saint-Étienne - Nancy	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
15.11.25	Quetigny - Saint-Étienne	1:3 ✺
French Ligue 2
08.11.25	Troyes - Saint-Étienne	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWWW
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
05.12.25	Bastia - Red Star	Abandoned ✺
Coupe De France
29.11.25	Saint-Malo - Bastia	0:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 2
25.11.25	Bastia - Laval	0:2 ✺
21.11.25	Annecy - Bastia	1:0 ✺
07.11.25	Bastia - Reims	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 ?WLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
16.03.24	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	0:4
19.12.23	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	3:2
31.01.23	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	2:0
30.08.22	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	5:0
French Ligue 1
04.03.17	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	0:0
18.09.16	Saint-Étienne - Bastia	1:0
16.04.16	Bastia - Saint-Étienne	0:1

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