Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 24

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport Online, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Lech Poznań		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.1	6	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.25
	1.49	4.3	6	Watch
	1.54	4.12	6.55
	1.55	4.15	6.16	Watch
	1.44	4.2	5.5
	1.54	4.09	5.99	Watch
	1.49	4.3	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.51)	4.18 ↓ (4.18)	5.93 ↑ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
61.8%

Draw
22.4%

Stal Mielec
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.5%

22.2%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63%

21.7%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 29. Carstensen R. 3. Douglas A. 18. Salamon B. 16. Milic A. 22. Murawski R. 43. Kozubal A. 7. Sousa A. 8. Gholizadeh A. 9. Ishak M. (C) 11. Hakans D.	39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 3. Esselink B. 15. Senger M. 27. Jaunzems A. 6. Guillaumier M. 10. Domanski M. 23. Getinger K. (C) 92. Kadzior D. 96. Dadok R. 44. Krykun S.
Substitutes
35. Bednarek F. (G) 19. Fiabema B. 15. Gurgul M. 21. Hotic D. 24. Jagiello F. 56. Lisman K. 2. Pereira J. 55. Pingot M. 10. Walemark P.	9. Assayag R. 7. Beauguel J. 32. Gerbowski F. 26. Hannola P. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 21. Matras M. 19. Tkacz D. 11. Wolkowicz K. 25. Wolsztynski L.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Niedzwiedz J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
21', 1 - 0, Carstensen R. ⚽, Gholizadeh A. (A),
22', 2 - 0, Hakans D. ⚽, Ishak M. (A),
41', 2 - 1, Dadok R. ⚽, Getinger K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Hakans D. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
51', Senger M. 🟨,
54', Walemark P. 🟨,
58', 3 - 1, Sousa A. ⚽,
65', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
68', Carstensen R. 🟨,
73', Murawski R. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
73', Milic A. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
73', Krykun S. ↓, Beauguel J. ↑,
82', Domanski M. ↓, Hannola P. ↑,
82', Dadok R. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
82', Guillaumier M. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
86', Sousa A. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
86', Senger M. ↓, Wolsztynski L. ↑,
90+2', Jaunzems A. 🟨,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lech won 2.

Recent matches Lech is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Stal Mielec is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lech could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lech is a favorite.

There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury)

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Knap K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Walemark P. (Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Lech won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:8 (average 1.2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Lech won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:6 (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	0:3 ✺
23.02.25	Lech Poznań - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1 ✺
14.02.25	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
09.02.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Lech Poznań	1:0 ✺
31.01.25	Lech Poznań - Widzew Łódź	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWLLW
- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.25	Stal Mielec - Korona Kielce	0:1 ✺
21.02.25	Piast Gliwice - Stal Mielec	2:2 ✺
16.02.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2 ✺
07.02.25	Stal Mielec - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:1 ✺
31.01.25	GKS Katowice - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
30.08.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:2
01.04.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:0
23.09.23	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	2:1
27.01.23	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:0
16.07.22	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	0:2
24.04.22	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	3:1
29.10.21	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:0

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