Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 29

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Gryckiewicz P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
World	Onefootball


	Pogoń Szczecin		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.6	2.1	Watch
	2.92	3.65	2.15	Watch
	3.14	3.84	2.21
	3.07	3.87	2.16	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.15
	3.01	3.6	2.16	Watch
	2.84	3.16	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.97 ↑ (2.81)	3.6 ↑ (3.18)	2.16 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
31.2%

Draw
25.7%

Lech Poznań
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

27.9%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

26.9%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	14.3%	57.1%

Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Lech will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Cojocaru V. (G) 13. Keramitsis D. 22. Loncar D. 41. Szalai At. 4. Leo Borges 3. Acosta K. 6. Bieganski J. 8. Ulvestad F. 47. Lawa N. 18. Mukairu P. 11. Grosicki K. (C)	1. Andreev P. (G) 2. Pereira J. 20. Gumny R. 27. Monka W. 15. Gurgul M. 8. Gholizadeh A. 43. Kozubal A. 99. Rodriguez P. 77. Palma L. 10. Walemark P. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
25. Agger M. 24. Angielski K. 10. Cuic F. 30. Czaplinski J. 7. Juwara M. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 32. Koutris L. 19. Ndiaye M. 61. Smolinski K.	7. Agnero Y. 14. Bengtsson L. 44. Gmur T. 11. Hakans D. 88. Ismaheel T. 24. Jagiello F. 90. Janyszka H. 4. Moutinho J. 6. Ouma T. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G)
Coaches
Thomasberg T.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', Rodriguez P. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Kozubal A. ⚽,
45', Acosta K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Rodriguez P. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
53', Grosicki K. ↓, Angielski K. ↑,
54', Loncar D. ↓, Agger M. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Palma L. ⚽, Gholizadeh A. (A),
63', Walemark P. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
63', Palma L. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
69', Bieganski J. ↓, Czaplinski J. ↑,
71', Ishak M. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
78', Lawa N. 🟨,
79', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
79', Gumny R. 🟨,
80', 1 - 2, Mukairu P. ⚽, Acosta K. (A),
85', Leo Borges ↓, Koutris L. ↑,
85', Lawa N. ↓, Ndiaye M. ↑,
86', Ismaheel T. 🟨,
90+6', Keramitsis D. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 1.

Pogoń Szczecin has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lech is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lech is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Molnar R. (Knee Injury) Pozo J. (Inactive) Wahlqvist L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Lisman K. (Knee Injury) Murawski R. (Surgery) Thordarson G. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Ismaheel T. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pogoń Szczecin won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 25:28. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Pogoń Szczecin won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.5:1.4).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 47.5% Pogon Szczecin: 1.66%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22
6	Pogon Szczecin	8	4	3	1	12:6	6	15

Last Results with these Odds

Lech Poznań - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 40.63%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
13.04.26	Piast Gliwice - Pogoń Szczecin	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Korona Kielce	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Raków Częstochowa - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLLWL
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
12.04.26	Lech Poznań - GKS Katowice	3:3 ✺
04.04.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
19.10.25	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2
01.03.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	0:3
25.08.24	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0
07.04.24	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0
Polish Cup
27.02.24	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1 ET
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.10.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	5:0
02.04.23	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2

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