Match Info

Conference League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Saggi R. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lech Poznań		Shakhtar Donetsk

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.4	2.63
	2.5	3.3	2.5
	2.58	3.25	2.68
	2.67	3.39	2.75
	2.66	3.44	2.74	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.63
	2.67	3.38	2.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.62)	3.32 ↓ (3.49)	2.67 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
36.3%

Draw
28.4%

Shakhtar Donetsk
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

27.3%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

27.6%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Lech Poznań have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Shakhtar Donetsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.9%	42.3%	30.8%

Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 6 - 25%). Shakhtar will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 22% – 61.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 10%). Shakhtar (votes: 5 - 50%). Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Shakhtar (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -0.5 - Shakhtar (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Shakhtar (votes: 10 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 99. Rodriguez P. 43. Kozubal A. 8. Gholizadeh A. 77. Palma L. 14. Bengtsson L. 9. Ishak M. (C)	31. Riznyk D. (G) 17. Tobias V. 5. Bondar V. (C) 4. Marlon 13. Henrique P. 30. Alisson 8. Kryskiv D. 11. Newerton 27. Ocheretko O. 10. Pedrinho 19. Kaua Elias
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 20. Gumny R. 88. Ismaheel T. 4. Moutinho J. 6. Ouma T. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 72. Skrzypczak M. 23. Thordarson G. 10. Walemark P.	16. Azarovi I. 21. Bondarenko A. 23. Fesyun K. (G) 14. Isaque Silva 26. Konoplya Y. 49. Luca Meirelles 37. Lucas Ferreira 6. Marlon Gomes 29. Nazaryna Y. 68. Obah P. 9. Shved M. 2. Traore L.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Turan A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Kryskiv D. ↓, Marlon Gomes ↑,
36', 0 - 1, Marlon Gomes ⚽, Kaua Elias (A),
37', Marlon Gomes 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Bengtsson L. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
48', 0 - 2, Newerton ⚽,
57', Gholizadeh A. 🟨,
61', Gurgul M. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,
61', Palma L. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
61', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Ishak M. ⚽, Pereira J. (A),
74', Bondar V. 🟨,
74', Newerton 🟨,
74', Marlon Gomes ↓, Nazaryna Y. ↑,
74', Newerton ↓, Isaque Silva ↑,
74', Alisson ↓, Lucas Ferreira ↑,
83', Rodriguez P. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
84', Milic A. 🟨,
85', 1 - 3, Isaque Silva ⚽,
88', Pedrinho ↓, Obah P. ↑,
90', Isaque Silva 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Lech has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Shakhtar is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Jagiello F. (Injury) Jakobczyk K. (Ankle Injury) Lisman K. (Inactive) Murawski R. (Surgery)

There will not play in Shakhtar: Khromey M. (Inactive) Kornienko V. (Inactive) Petryak I. (Inactive) Savchenko R. (Inactive) Sigeev K. (Inactive) Udod D. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Lech won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.03.26	Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Polish Cup
04.03.26	Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.26	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	4:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	Lech Poznań - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.26	Korona Kielce - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWW
- Shakhtar Donetsk
Ukrainian Premier League
06.03.26	Oleksandriya - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Veres Rivne	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Karpaty Lviv	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.02.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Dila Gori	3:2 ✺
10.02.26	LNZ Cherkasy - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
25.01.24	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	1:3
21.01.21	Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań	1:1
25.01.20	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:1
31.01.19	Lech Poznań - Shakhtar Donetsk	0:3

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