Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 9

Date: 22 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball app


	Lech Poznań		Śląsk Wrocław

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.6	4.75	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.8
	1.68	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.7	3.75	5.37
	1.75	3.73	4.78	Watch
	1.62	3.7	4.75
	1.68	3.78	4.88	Watch
	1.61	3.55	5.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.61)	3.7 ↓ (3.95)	4.92 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
55.8%

Draw
25.2%

Śląsk Wrocław
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.8%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

22.8%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Śląsk Wrocław has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lech Poznań, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Śląsk Wrocław than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	4.5%	13.6%

Lech Poznań - Śląsk Wrocław Predictions

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (18 of 22 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.7% – 97.94%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 3. Douglas A. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 22. Murawski R. (C) 43. Kozubal A. 21. Hotic D. 7. Sousa A. 10. Walemark P. 17. Szymczak F.	12. Leszczynski R. (G) 22. Zukowski M. 87. Petrov S. 4. Bejger L. 33. Matsenko Y. 16. Pokorny P. (C) 7. Samiec-Talar P. 21. Baluta T. 17. Schwarz P. 9. Eyamba J. 11. Musiolik S.
Substitutes
50. Ba Loua A. 35. Bednarek F. (G) 19. Fiabema B. 8. Gholizadeh A. 20. Hoffmann I. 24. Jagiello F. 56. Lisman K. 33. Loncar S. 55. Pingot M.	77. Cebula M. 78. Guercio T. 26. Ince B. 29. Jezierski J. 1. Loska T. (G) 19. Ortiz A. 2. Paluszek A. 10. Swierczok J. 3. Szota S.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Magiera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kozubal A. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
61', Eyamba J. ↓, Cebula M. ↑,
63', Hotic D. ↓, Gholizadeh A. ↑,
63', Walemark P. ↓, Fiabema B. ↑,
66', Baluta T. ↓, Swierczok J. ↑,
68', 1 - 0, Szymczak F. ⚽, Fiabema B. (A),
77', Szymczak F. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
77', Musiolik S. ↓, Guercio T. ↑,
77', Matsenko Y. ↓, Ortiz A. ↑,
77', Samiec-Talar P. ↓, Jezierski J. ↑,
80', Pokorny P. 🟨,
84', Sousa A. ↓, Loncar S. ↑,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lech won 0.

Lech in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Śląsk is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lech could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Śląsk have a series of home games.

In this match Lech is a favorite.

There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury) Hakans D. (Injury)

There will not play in Śląsk: Glogowski B. (Injury) Poprawa K. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Lech to win the game is with odds 1.59.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Lech won 7 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 25-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Lech won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.09.24	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	5:0 ✺
30.08.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
25.08.24	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
17.08.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
09.08.24	Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWWWT
- Śląsk Wrocław
Club Friendly
07.09.24	Śląsk Wrocław - GKS Tychy	2:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.09.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Śląsk Wrocław	5:3 ✺
25.08.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
18.08.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.08.24	Śląsk Wrocław - St. Gallen	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
24.02.24	Lech Poznań - Śląsk Wrocław	0:0
20.08.23	Śląsk Wrocław - Lech Poznań	3:1
26.02.23	Śląsk Wrocław - Lech Poznań	2:1
Polish Cup
19.10.22	Lech Poznań - Śląsk Wrocław	1:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.08.22	Lech Poznań - Śląsk Wrocław	0:1
01.04.22	Śląsk Wrocław - Lech Poznań	0:1
02.10.21	Lech Poznań - Śląsk Wrocław	4:0

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