Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 7

Date: 1 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera (Szczecin)

Referee: Raczkowski P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball app


	Pogoń Szczecin		Śląsk Wrocław

	1	X	2
	2	3.6	3.3	Watch
	2	3.6	3.4
	2	3.6	3.4
	1.78	3.69	4.43
	2.02	3.7	3.52	Watch
	2	3.5	3.2
	2.02	3.64	3.39	Watch
	2	3.6	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.76)	3.62 ↓ (3.82)	3.51 ↓ (4.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pogoń Szczecin
47.4%

Draw
25.9%

Śląsk Wrocław
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

24.7%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

24.6%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Szczecin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pogoń Szczecin's form might have worsened.

Śląsk Wrocław has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Szczecin than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pogoń Szczecin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Śląsk Wrocław than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Śląsk Wrocław, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	7.1%	42.9%

Pogoń Szczecin - Śląsk Wrocław Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Pogoń Szczecin will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Śląsk will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pogoń Szczecin: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Cojocaru V. (G) 17. Lis J. 28. Wahlqvist L. 4. Leo Borges 32. Koutris L. 10. Przyborek A. 7. Kurzawa R. 8. Ulvestad F. 22. Bichakhchyan V. 9. Koulouris E. 11. Grosicki K. (C)	12. Leszczynski R. (G) 22. Zukowski M. 2. Paluszek A. 5. Petkov A. (C) 78. Guercio T. 16. Pokorny P. 26. Ince B. 77. Cebula M. 17. Schwarz P. 10. Nahuel M. 11. Musiolik S.
Substitutes
21. Gamboa J. 20. Gorgon A. 31. Kaminski K. (G) 27. Korczakowski O. 25. Lisowski W. 19. Lukasiak K. 51. Paryzek P. 61. Smolinski K. 35. Wojciechowski M.	21. Baluta T. 9. Eyamba J. 29. Jezierski J. 33. Matsenko Y. 19. Ortiz A. 87. Petrov S. 27. Rejczyk F. 44. Sliczniak H. (G) 3. Szota S.
Coaches
Kolendowicz R.	Magiera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
9', 1 - 0, Ulvestad F. ⚽, Bichakhchyan V. (A),
21', 2 - 0, Grosicki K. ⚽, Bichakhchyan V. (A),
25', Przyborek A. 🟨,
27', Musiolik S. 🟨,
32', 2 - 1, Petkov A. ⚽, Schwarz P. (A),
37', 2 - 2, Musiolik S. ⚽, Schwarz P. (A),
41', 3 - 2, Koulouris E. ⚽, Grosicki K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Paluszek A. ↓, Petrov S. ↑,
47', Guercio T. 🟨,
51', Zukowski M. 🟨,
51', Koulouris E. 🟨,
58', Guercio T. ↓, Matsenko Y. ↑,
59', Przyborek A. ↓, Gorgon A. ↑,
65', Ince B. ↓, Ortiz A. ↑,
65', Cebula M. ↓, Baluta T. ↑,
66', 4 - 2, Gorgon A. ⚽,
75', Grosicki K. ↓, Lukasiak K. ↑,
75', Lis J. ↓, Lisowski W. ↑,
80', Nahuel M. ↓, Rejczyk F. ↑,
82', 4 - 3, Petrov S. ⚽, Zukowski M. (A),
85', Kurzawa R. ↓, Gamboa J. ↑,
85', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Korczakowski O. ↑,
90', 5 - 3, Koulouris E. ⚽, Ulvestad F. (A),
90+6', Matsenko Y. 🟨,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 7 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Pogoń Szczecin won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Pogoń Szczecin could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Pogoń Szczecin is a favorite.

There will not play in Pogoń Szczecin: Loncar D. (Injury) Malec M. (Injury) Wedrychowski M. (Injury) Zech B. (Red Card)

There will not play in Śląsk: Bejger L. (Injury) Glogowski B. (Injury) Poprawa K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Śląsk: Olsen P. (Injury)

Last 20 head-to-head matches Pogoń Szczecin won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 16-25.

Including matches at home between the teams Pogoń Szczecin won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Szczecin
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.08.24	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
17.08.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Widzew Łódź	2:0 ✺
10.08.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
02.08.24	Górnik Zabrze - Pogoń Szczecin	1:0 ✺
28.07.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Pogoń Szczecin	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWLT
- Śląsk Wrocław
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.08.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
18.08.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
15.08.24	Śląsk Wrocław - St. Gallen	3:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.08.24	Widzew Łódź - Śląsk Wrocław	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.24	St. Gallen - Śląsk Wrocław	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
11.02.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Pogoń Szczecin	0:1
30.08.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Śląsk Wrocław	0:2
05.02.23	Pogoń Szczecin - Śląsk Wrocław	0:2
24.07.22	Śląsk Wrocław - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1
07.05.22	Śląsk Wrocław - Pogoń Szczecin	1:1
21.11.21	Pogoń Szczecin - Śląsk Wrocław	2:1
28.02.21	Śląsk Wrocław - Pogoń Szczecin	2:1

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