Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 7

Date: 30 August 2024, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball app


	Stal Mielec		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	4	3.5	1.91	Watch
	3.8	3.3	1.95
	4	3.4	1.9	Watch
	4.2	3.48	1.97
	3.87	3.51	1.97	Watch
	3.8	3.3	1.85
	3.97	3.42	1.92	Watch
	4	3.4	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.96 ↑ (3.69)	3.41 ↓ (3.45)	1.92 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
23.7%

Draw
27.5%

Lech Poznań
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.4%

27.2%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.2%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 3. Esselink B. 21. Matras M. 15. Senger M. 33. Bukowski A. 6. Guillaumier M. 10. Domanski M. 27. Jaunzems A. 23. Getinger K. (C) 9. Assayag R. 17. Shkurin I.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 16. Milic A. 3. Douglas A. 15. Gurgul M. 21. Hotic D. 22. Murawski R. 43. Kozubal A. 11. Hakans D. 7. Sousa A. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
40. Bagalianis P. 96. Dadok R. 32. Gerbowski F. 8. Hinokio K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 37. Stepien M. 19. Tkacz D. 11. Wolkowicz K. 25. Wolsztynski L.	5. Andersson E. 35. Bednarek F. (G) 19. Fiabema B. 8. Gholizadeh A. 24. Jagiello F. 55. Pingot M. 18. Salamon B. 17. Szymczak F. 10. Walemark P.
Coaches
Kieres K.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
32', 0 - 1, Hotic D. ⚽,
37', 0 - 2, Ishak M. ⚽, Kozubal A. (A),
39', Bukowski A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bukowski A. ↓, Hinokio K. ↑,
60', Sousa A. ↓, Gholizadeh A. ↑,
60', Hakans D. ↓, Salamon B. ↑,
70', Jaunzems A. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
78', Hotic D. ↓, Walemark P. ↑,
78', Murawski R. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
79', Assayag R. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
83', Kozubal A. 🟨,
86', Matras M. 🟨,
87', Ishak M. ↓, Szymczak F. ↑,
90', Esselink B. 🟥,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 1.

Stal Mielec is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lech is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Lech is a favorite.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Injury) Pajnowski K. (Injury)

There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Stal Mielec won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.08.24	Korona Kielce - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
19.08.24	Stal Mielec - Piast Gliwice	2:0 ✺
10.08.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Stal Mielec	1:0 ✺
03.08.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
27.07.24	Stal Mielec - GKS Katowice	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWLLL
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.08.24	Lech Poznań - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
17.08.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Lech Poznań	0:1 ✺
09.08.24	Raków Częstochowa - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
03.08.24	Lech Poznań - Lechia Gdańsk	3:1 ✺
27.07.24	Widzew Łódź - Lech Poznań	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
01.04.24	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:0
23.09.23	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	2:1
27.01.23	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:0
16.07.22	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	0:2
24.04.22	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	3:1
29.10.21	Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań	0:0
01.05.21	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	1:2

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