Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 11

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday


	Leek Town		Ilkeston

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.3	2.42
	2.62	3.41	2.42
	7.72	4.12	1.42	Watch
	2.61	3.24	2.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.87 ↑ (2.4)	3.52 ↑ (3.24)	2.16 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leek Town
25.7%

Draw
28.3%

Ilkeston
46%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

27.8%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

26.5%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leek Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leek Town's form might have worsened.

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ilkeston's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leek Town than the current prediction. (+13.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leek Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ilkeston, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Leek Town - Ilkeston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Kirby-Moore H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 1 - 1, Weir L. ⚽,
59', 1 - 2, Walker J. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 17).

In recent matches, Leek has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ilkeston's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Leek won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Leek won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Ilkeston - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 34.7%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leek Town
English NPL Premier Division
16.09.25	Leek Town - Hednesford Town	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Cleethorpes Town - Leek Town	3:0 ✺
09.09.25	Hyde United - Leek Town	1:2 ✺
06.09.25	Leek Town - Guiseley	4:0 ✺
25.08.25	Leek Town - Warrington Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LLWWW
- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
16.09.25	Ilkeston - Cleethorpes Town	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
09.09.25	Hednesford Town - Ilkeston	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Ilkeston - Whitby Town	0:1 ✺
25.08.25	Ilkeston - Hyde United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
04.01.25	Ilkeston - Leek Town	0:2
21.09.24	Leek Town - Ilkeston	1:3

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