Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 11

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday


	Lancaster City		Ilkeston

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.50	3.40
	1.82	3.55	3.45
	1.78	3.95	3.35
	1.86	4.09	3.49	Watch
	1.74	3.85	3.25
	1.96	3.92	3.57
	1.81	3.6	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (1.9)	3.78 ↑ (3.73)	3.42 ↓ (3.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lancaster City
49.5%

Draw
24%

Ilkeston
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

24.9%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

21.6%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lancaster City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Ilkeston has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lancaster City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilkeston than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Lancaster City - Ilkeston Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Dwyer A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', 1 - 1, Bailey S. (Penalty Awarded),
80', 2 - 1, Craig J. ⚽,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 12th and 20th in the Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lancaster won 3.

Lancaster has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Ilkeston is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Lancaster may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Lancaster is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Lancaster has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:17 (averaging 1.7:2.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lancaster against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 7:8 goals (averaging 2.3:2.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Lancaster	12	5	1	6	16:24	-8	16
21	Ilkeston	12	2	1	9	7:26	-19	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
29.09.26	Whitby Town - Lancaster City	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.09.26	Cleethorpes Town - Lancaster City	5:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Lancaster City - Curzon Ashton	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Lancaster City - Workington	0:3 ✺
28.08.26	Guiseley - Lancaster City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLLLW
- Ilkeston FC
English NPL Premier Division
29.09.26	Ilkeston - Warrington Rylands	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Workington - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Ilkeston - Quorn	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	Bury - Ilkeston	7:0 ✺
25.08.26	Ashton United - Ilkeston	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
17.01.26	Ilkeston - Lancaster City	3:0
13.09.25	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	3:1
15.03.25	Ilkeston - Lancaster City	4:0
09.11.24	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	4:3
10.02.24	Ilkeston - Lancaster City	2:3
23.09.23	Lancaster City - Ilkeston	0:4

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