Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 16

Date: 8 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganes)

Referee: Fuertes P. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport LaLiga
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	beIN Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Norway	TV2 Play
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Turkey	S Sport
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN+


	Leganés		Real Sociedad

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.1	1.75	Watch
	5.5	3.1	1.8
	5.5	3.2	1.83	Watch
	6.4	3.17	1.81
	6.1	3.08	1.83	Watch
	6	3	1.8
	6.17	3.19	1.85	Watch
	5.5	3.2	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.87 ↑ (3.73)	3.13 ↓ (3.16)	1.81 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leganés
16.4%

Draw
30.7%

Real Sociedad
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.6%

30.3%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

31.2%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leganés's form might have worsened.

Real Sociedad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Sociedad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leganés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Sociedad than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Sociedad, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.9%	29.3%	65.9%

Leganés - Real Sociedad Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Leganés will win (votes: 2 - 5%). Real Sociedad will win (votes: 27 - 67.5%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 27.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Sociedad: 53% – 82%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Dmitrovic M. (G) 12. Rosier V. 6. Gonzalez S. (C) 22. Nastasic M. 20. Hernandez J. 5. Tapia R. 9. de la Fuente M. 8. Cisse S. 17. Neyou Y. 7. Rodriguez O. 19. Garcia D.	1. Remiro A. (G) 27. Aramburu J. 4. Zubimendi M. 21. Aguerd N. 3. Munoz A. 14. Kubo T. 5. Zubeldia I. 24. Sucic L. 23. Mendez B. 10. Oyarzabal M. (C) 17. Gomez S.
Substitutes
2. Altimira A. 36. Alvin (G) 28. Bachiller I. 24. Chicco J. 11. Cruz J. 27. Garcia N. 21. Lopez R. 23. Munir El Haddadi 4. Porozo J. 3. Saenz J. 1. Soriano J. (G)	7. Barrenetxea A. 11. Becker S. 15. Gonzalez U. 12. Lopez J. 25. Magunazelaia Argoitia J. 40. Mariezkurrena A. 28. Marin P. 13. Marrero U. (G) 31. Martin J. 16. Olasagasti J. A. 34. Ruperez I. 19. Sadiq U.
Coaches
Jimenez B.	Alguacil I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Mendez B. ⚽, Gomez S. (A),
27', Munoz A. 🟨,
31', Munoz A. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', Zubimendi M. ↓, Olasagasti J. A. ↑,
56', Cisse S. ↓, Cruz J. ↑,
70', Rosier V. 🟨,
70', Mendez B. 🟨,
75', Neyou Y. 🟨,
77', Gomez S. ↓, Barrenetxea A. ↑,
78', Kubo T. ↓, Becker S. ↑,
78', 0 - 2, Barrenetxea A. ⚽,
79', Tapia R. ↓, Munir El Haddadi ↑,
90+2', 0 - 3, Oyarzabal M. ⚽, Barrenetxea A. (A),

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 15 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leganés won 1.

Recent matches Leganés is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real Sociedad is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Real Sociedad could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real Sociedad is a favorite.

There will not play in Leganés: Franquesa E. (Knee Injury) Raba D. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Real Sociedad: Elustondo A. (Ankle Injury) Oskarsson O. (Muscle Injury) Traore H. (Knee Injury) Turrientes B. (Muscle Injury) Zakharyan A. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Leganés: Brasanac D. (Muscle Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Leganés won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 11:16 (average 1.2:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Leganés won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Leganés
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.24	Estepona - Leganés	2:3 penalties ✺
Spanish LaLiga
30.11.24	Deportivo Alavés - Leganés	1:1 ✺
24.11.24	Leganés - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
09.11.24	Leganés - Sevilla	1:0 ✺
02.11.24	Girona - Leganés	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTLWL
- Real Sociedad
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.12.24	Conquense - Real Sociedad	0:1 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
01.12.24	Real Sociedad - Betis	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
28.11.24	Real Sociedad - Ajax	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
24.11.24	Athletic Bilbao - Real Sociedad	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
21.11.24	Español de San Vicente - Real Sociedad	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
05.01.22	Leganés - Real Sociedad	2:3
Spanish LaLiga
02.02.20	Leganés - Real Sociedad	2:1
08.11.19	Real Sociedad - Leganés	1:1
16.02.19	Real Sociedad - Leganés	3:0
24.08.18	Leganés - Real Sociedad	2:2
12.05.18	Real Sociedad - Leganés	3:2
07.01.18	Leganés - Real Sociedad	1:0

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