Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 4

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Kos D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 4
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Legia Warsaw		GKS Katowice

	1	X	2
	1.4	5.25	6.25	Watch
	1.39	5	6.75
	1.37	4.95	6.7	Watch
	1.39	5.41	6.92
	1.62	4.00	5.09	Watch
	1.4	4.6	6.5
	1.39	5	7.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.54)	4.89 ↑ (4.1)	6.46 ↑ (5.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
66.2%

Draw
19.3%

GKS Katowice
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.1%

22.5%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

21.3%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Legia Warsaw's performance.

GKS Katowice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for GKS Katowice than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	16.7%	5.6%

Legia Warsaw - GKS Katowice Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%). GKS Katowice will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 58.6% – 97%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Legia (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 8 - 80%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 12. Pankov R. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. (C) 19. Vinagre R. 67. Kapustka B. 4. Burch M. 5. Goncalves C. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 18. Nsame J. 9. Alfarela M.	1. Kudla D. (G) 30. Czerwinski A. 4. Jedrych A. (C) 2. Kuusk M. 23. Wasielewski M. 19. Lukasiak K. 77. Kowalczyk M. 8. Galan B. 11. Blad A. 7. Rosolek M. 27. Nowak B.
Substitutes
8. Augustyniak R. 3. Kapuadi S. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 23. Kun P. 25. Morishita R. 13. Reca A. 17. Shkurin I. 30. Stojanovic P. 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J. 24. Ziolkowski J.	21. Buksa A. 24. Gruszkowski K. 6. Klemenz L. 14. Lukowski J. 22. Milewski S. 3. Paluszek A. 20. Rejczyk F. 12. Straczek R. (G) 10. Wedrychowski M. 99. Zrelak A.
Coaches
Iordanescu E.	Gorak R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Wszolek P. ⚽, Jedrzejczyk A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Pankov R. 🟨,
48', Wszolek P. 🟨,
58', Alfarela M. ↓, Morishita R. ↑,
62', Rosolek M. ↓, Zrelak A. ↑,
69', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Stojanovic P. ↑,
69', Goncalves C. ↓, Reca A. ↑,
83', Blad A. ↓, Wedrychowski M. ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Nowak B. ⚽, Wasielewski M. (A),
85', Nsame J. ↓, Shkurin I. ↑,
85', Vinagre R. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
88', Urbanski W. 🟨,
90+4', Kudla D. 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 1, Jedrzejczyk A. ⚽, Wszolek P. (A),
90+7', 3 - 1, Morishita R. ⚽, Stojanovic P. (A),

Preview

Legia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

GKS Katowice has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, GKS Katowice has had a series of home games.

In this match, Legia is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in GKS Katowice: Milewski S. (Inactive) Rogala G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Legia: Elitim J. (Inactive)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Legia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:2. (average 3.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 3.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa League
07.08.25	AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Baník Ostrava	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.07.25	Baník Ostrava - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTWWT
- GKS Katowice
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.25	Widzew Łódź - GKS Katowice	3:0 ✺
28.07.25	GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Lubin	2:2 ✺
19.07.25	GKS Katowice - Raków Częstochowa	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	GKS Katowice - Sigma Olomouc	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	GKS Katowice - Stal Rzeszów	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
26.04.25	GKS Katowice - Legia Warsaw	1:3
27.10.24	Legia Warsaw - GKS Katowice	4:1
Club Friendly
24.03.23	Legia Warsaw - GKS Katowice	3:0

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