Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich (Ostrava)

Referee: Ciochirca P. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2


	Baník Ostrava		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.25	2.75	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.8
	2.38	3.35	2.78
	2.5	3.39	2.72
	2.50	3.43	2.69	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.75
	2.45	3.5	2.88	Watch
	2.28	3.33	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.33)	3.33 ↓ (3.46)	2.78 ↓ (3.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baník Ostrava
38.5%

Draw
28%

Legia Warsaw
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

27.7%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

28.1%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baník Ostrava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baník Ostrava than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.6%	25.7%	25.7%

Baník Ostrava - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Baník Ostrava will win (votes: 16 - 55.2%). Legia will win (votes: 8 - 27.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baník Ostrava: 37.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Baník Ostrava (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Legia (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Legia (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Legia (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Baník Ostrava (votes: 8 - 50%). Legia (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 18.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Holec D. (G) 17. Frydrych M. (C) 37. Chalus M. 6. Pojezny K. 9. Buchta D. 5. Boula J. 12. Rigo T. 95. Holzer D. 10. Sin M. 28. Kubala F. 33. Prekop E.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 24. Ziolkowski J. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 8. Augustyniak R. 22. Elitim J. 11. Chodyna K. 17. Shkurin I. 25. Morishita R.
Substitutes
77. Almasi L. 1. Budinsky V. (G) 7. Ewerton 8. Frydek Ch. 99. Kornezos G. 15. Kpozo P. 41. Kubny M. (G) 11. Latal D. 19. Lischka D. 31. Munksgaard A. 25. Owusu D. 22. Zlatohlavek T.	9. Alfarela M. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 4. Burch M. 5. Goncalves C. 28. Gual M. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 23. Kun P. 18. Nsame J. 12. Pankov R. 30. Stojanovic P. 53. Urbanski W.
Coaches
Hapal P.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Sin M. ⚽, Kubala F. (A),
16', Boula J. 🟨,
22', Kubala F. ↓, Ewerton ↑,
32', 1 - 1, Kapustka B. ⚽, Wszolek P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
62', Shkurin I. ↓, Nsame J. ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Frydrych M. ⚽, Sin M. (A),
74', Morishita R. ↓, Stojanovic P. ↑,
74', Chodyna K. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
82', Holzer D. ↓, Kpozo P. ↑,
82', Sin M. ↓, Zlatohlavek T. ↑,
82', Kapustka B. ↓, Goncalves C. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Nsame J. ⚽, Elitim J. (A),
90+1', Prekop E. ↓, Almasi L. ↑,
90+3', Bichakhchyan V. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Baník Ostrava has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Legia is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Baník Ostrava has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baník Ostrava
Czech 1 Liga
19.07.25	Bohemians 1905 - Baník Ostrava	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Baník Ostrava - Dukla Banská Bystrica	2:2 ✺
05.07.25	Lech Poznań - Baník Ostrava	1:2 ✺
02.07.25	Widzew Łódź - Baník Ostrava	2:0 ✺
02.07.25	Piast Gliwice - Baník Ostrava	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTWLT
- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa League
17.07.25	Aktobe - Legia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Polish Super Cup
13.07.25	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
10.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
30.06.25	Legia Warsaw - Jablonec	1:0 ✺
25.06.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWT

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