Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 3

Date: 8 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Exbud Arena (Kielce)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Korona Kielce		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.3	Watch
	2.85	3.20	2.40
	3.05	3.2	2.28
	3.14	3.27	2.45
	3.07	3.31	2.38	Watch
	3.05	3.15	2.4
	3.24	3.29	2.28	Watch
	3.05	3.2	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.55)	3.23 ↑ (3.17)	2.35 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Korona Kielce
30.8%

Draw
29.1%

Legia Warsaw
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

27.9%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

27.4%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Korona Kielce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	35.3%	58.8%

Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Korona will win (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Legia will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Korona (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dziekonski X. (G) 23. Rubezic S. 44. Sotiriou K. 2. Mosor A. 71. Dlugosz W. 18. Hellebrand P. 35. Jakubczyk K. 6. Pieczek M. 86. Gustafson S. 22. Fassbender M. 14. Stepinski M. (C)	89. Hindrich O. (G) 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. 5. Deziel R. 4. Szymanski D. 22. Wszolek P. 53. Urbanski W. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 19. Vinagre R. 79. Zjawinski L. 9. Adamski R.
Substitutes
99. Bak D. 67. Barczak N. 21. Ciszek K. 9. Davidovic S. 87. Mamla R. (G) 11. Matuszewski K. 10. Nono 8. Remacle M. 24. Smolarczyk B. 37. Zwozny H.	6. Arreiol H. 59. Bienduga J. (G) 11. Chodyna K. 97. Mikanovich E. 77. Przybylko F. 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 23. Sevcik M. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Zielinski J.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
28', 0 - 1, Zjawinski L. ⚽, Piatkowski K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Adamski R. 🟨,
60', Jakubczyk K. 🟨,
63', Mosor A. ↓, Davidovic S. ↑,
67', Urbanski W. ↓, Zewlakow J. ↑,
67', Zjawinski L. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Stepinski M. ⚽, Dlugosz W. (A),
71', Jakubczyk K. ↓, Remacle M. ↑,
85', Stepinski M. ↓, Bak D. ↑,
85', Gustafson S. ↓, Nono ↑,
87', Kapustka B. ↓, Arreiol H. ↑,
88', Wszolek P. ↓, Reca A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Korona won 1.

Recent performances by Korona have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Legia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Korona: Davidovic S. (Abdominal strain) Nono (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Colak A. (Face Injury) Stojanovic P. (Tendon Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Korona won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 21:39. (average 1.1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Korona won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:22. (average 1.3:2).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Legia: 13.85% Korona Kielce: 2.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Legia	9	5	4	0	19:8	11	19
7	Korona Kielce	9	4	3	2	12:10	2	15

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 37.35%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.07.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Korona Kielce - Termalica Nieciecza	0:2 ✺
14.07.26	Korona Kielce - Stal Rzeszów	0:0 ✺
09.07.26	Korona Kielce - Omonia	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	Korona Kielce - Zemplín Michalovce	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTTW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.26	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1 ✺
24.07.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Legia Warsaw - Aris Limassol	0:2 ✺
18.07.26	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
14.07.26	Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
01.02.26	Legia Warsaw - Korona Kielce	1:2
27.07.25	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	0:2
02.02.25	Legia Warsaw - Korona Kielce	1:1
28.07.24	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	0:1
25.02.24	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	3:3
Polish Cup
06.12.23	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	2:1 ET
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.08.23	Legia Warsaw - Korona Kielce	1:0

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