Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 3

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 4
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz


	Legia Warsaw		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	1.48	4.5	5.75	Watch
	1.55	4.2	5.25
	1.48	4.45	5.5	Watch
	1.51	4.51	6.08
	1.50	4.52	5.74	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5
	1.5	4.61	6.13	Watch
	1.43	4.45	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.54)	4.43 ↑ (4.13)	5.78 ↑ (5.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
62.7%

Draw
21.1%

Arka Gdynia
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

22.4%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.4%

21.3%

16.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.5%	0%	6.5%

Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Legia (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Legia (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Arka (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (28 of 30 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.4% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Legia (votes: 18 - 90%). Arka (votes: 2 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 30. Stojanovic P. 12. Pankov R. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. (C) 23. Kun P. 25. Morishita R. 5. Goncalves C. 53. Urbanski W. 11. Chodyna K. 17. Shkurin I. 9. Alfarela M.	77. Weglarz D. (C) 2. Navarro M. 29. Marcjanik M. 18. Celestine J. 33. Abramowicz D. 37. Kerk S. 35. Jakubczyk K. 8. Sidibe A. 11. Kocyla D. 22. Percan 27. Oliveira J.
Substitutes
8. Augustyniak R. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 4. Burch M. 3. Kapuadi S. 67. Kapustka B. 31. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 19. Vinagre R. 20. Zewlakow J. 24. Ziolkowski J.	19. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 23. Hermoso K. 10. Nguiamba A. 6. Perea L. 17. Predenkiewicz M. 32. Stolc P. 14. Vitalucci H. 4. Zator D.
Coaches
Iordanescu E.	Szwarga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Kun P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Stojanovic P. 🟨,
58', Shkurin I. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
58', Kun P. ↓, Reca A. ↑,
58', Morishita R. ↓, Kapustka B. ↑,
60', Kocyla D. ↓, Gaprindashvili T. ↑,
60', Oliveira J. ↓, Predenkiewicz M. ↑,
65', Reca A. 🟨,
69', Alfarela M. ↓, Wszolek P. ↑,
69', Jakubczyk K. ↓, Perea L. ↑,
69', Kerk S. ↓, Nguiamba A. ↑,
78', Chodyna K. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
79', Percan ↓, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↑,
83', Gaprindashvili T. 🟨,
86', Perea L. 🟨,
87', Navarro M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 3.

Legia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Arka has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Legia has had a series of away games.

Recently, Arka has had a series of home games.

In this match, Legia is the undisputed favorite.

There are questionable in Legia: Reca A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Arka: Jakubczyk K. (Injury)

We predict that Legia will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Legia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.7:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Baník Ostrava	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.07.25	Baník Ostrava - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
17.07.25	Aktobe - Legia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Polish Super Cup
13.07.25	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWTWW
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Radomiak Radom	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Motor Lublin - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Hapoel Jerusalem	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Chojniczanka Chojnice	2:0 ✺
02.07.25	Arka Gdynia - Pogoń Szczecin	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
10.06.20	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	5:1
03.11.19	Arka Gdynia - Legia Warsaw	0:1
09.03.19	Arka Gdynia - Legia Warsaw	1:2
28.09.18	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	1:1
Polish Super Cup
14.07.18	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	2:3
Polish Cup
02.05.18	Arka Gdynia - Legia Warsaw	1:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
31.03.18	Arka Gdynia - Legia Warsaw	1:0

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