Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday

Location: AEK Arena (Larnaca)

Referee: Fesnic H. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Poland	TVP 2, TVP Sport
Slovakia	Arena sport 1


	AEK Larnaca		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	2.88	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3
	2.32	3.35	2.92	Watch
	2.42	3.39	2.92
	2.63	3.28	2.63	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.9
	2.42	3.41	3.03	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.5)	3.29 ↑ (3.25)	2.91 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AEK Larnaca
39.6%

Draw
28.3%

Legia Warsaw
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

28.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

27.9%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AEK Larnaca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	36.4%	27.3%

AEK Larnaca - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 8 - 38.1%). Legia will win (votes: 6 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AEK Larnaca: 17.3% – 58.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 5 - 45.5%). Legia (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Legia (1.47) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Legia (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Legia (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 22. Ekpolo G. 27. Roberge V. 14. Garcia A. (C) 93. Gnali J. 17. Pons P. 15. Milicevic H. 7. Ledes Gustavo 9. Ivanovic D. 19. Angielski K. 18. Chacon Y.	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 24. Ziolkowski J. 3. Kapuadi S. 19. Vinagre R. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 8. Augustyniak R. 5. Goncalves C. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 18. Nsame J. 30. Stojanovic P.
Substitutes
20. Amyn Y. 11. Bajic R. 30. Cabrera E. 24. Danny Henriques 99. Demetriou D. (G) 37. Gerasimou D. 2. Ioannou P. II. 6. Jimmy Suarez 36. Loukaidis C. 41. Mathias Gonzalez 21. Miramon 51. Paraskevas A. (G)	9. Alfarela M. 4. Burch M. 11. Chodyna K. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 25. Morishita R. 12. Pankov R. 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 17. Shkurin I. 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Idiakez I.	Iordanescu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Pons P. ⚽, Gnali J. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Nsame J. ⚽, Kapustka B. (A),
27', Roberge V. ↓, Miramon ↑,
45+1', Bichakhchyan V. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
48', 2 - 1, Angielski K. ⚽, Gnali J. (A),
54', Stojanovic P. ↓, Alfarela M. ↑,
61', Ekpolo G. 🟨,
63', Angielski K. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
63', Gnali J. ↓, Jimmy Suarez ↑,
70', Goncalves C. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
70', Bichakhchyan V. ↓, Morishita R. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Chacon Y. ⚽, Jimmy Suarez (A),
79', Nsame J. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
85', 4 - 1, Rajovic M. (Own goal),
89', Kapustka B. 🟨,
90', Ivanovic D. ↓, Amyn Y. ↑,
90+4', Ziolkowski J. 🟨,
90+8', Kapustka B. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Legia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, AEK Larnaca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AEK Larnaca
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	AEK Larnaca - Celje	2:1 ✺
24.07.25	Celje - AEK Larnaca	1:1 ✺
17.07.25	Partizan - AEK Larnaca	2:2 penalties ✺
10.07.25	AEK Larnaca - Partizan	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Anderlecht - AEK Larnaca	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WTWWT
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Legia Warsaw - Arka Gdynia	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	Legia Warsaw - Baník Ostrava	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.07.25	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.07.25	Baník Ostrava - Legia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
17.07.25	Aktobe - Legia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
16.06.16	Legia Warsaw - AEK Larnaca	0:1

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