Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 28

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Mar (Matosinhos)

Referee: Oliveira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Leixões		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.5
	1.93	3.2	3.5
	1.9	3.45	3.55
	2.04	3.54	3.82
	1.95	3.1	3.6
	1.96	3.44	3.64
	1.98	3.35	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (1.97)	3.35 ↑ (3.17)	3.57 ↓ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leixões
46.9%

Draw
27.4%

Covilhã
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

29%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

22.9%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leixões has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leixões than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leixões that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Covilhã could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Leixões - Covilhã Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Leixões will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leixões: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 10 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leixões won 2.

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Leixões will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 21 head-to-head matches Leixões won 8 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 23-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Leixões won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leixões SC
Portuguese Liga 2
08.04.23	Tondela - Leixões	2:3 ✺
02.04.23	Leixões - Académico de Viseu	2:3 ✺
19.03.23	Porto B - Leixões	4:0 ✺
12.03.23	Leixões - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
05.03.23	Farense - Leixões	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLLTL
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
08.04.23	Torreense - Covilhã	3:1 ✺
02.04.23	Covilhã - Estrela da Amadora	0:2 ✺
19.03.23	Académico de Viseu - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Covilhã - Benfica B	2:1 ✺
05.03.23	Nacional - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
30.10.22	Covilhã - Leixões	1:2
24.04.22	Covilhã - Leixões	1:1
11.12.21	Leixões - Covilhã	2:1
02.05.21	Covilhã - Leixões	0:0
03.01.21	Leixões - Covilhã	0:0
22.02.20	Leixões - Covilhã	0:0
15.09.19	Covilhã - Leixões	2:3

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