Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 26

Date: 2 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Covilhã		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.25	1.95	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2
	3.45	3.25	2
	3.79	3.32	2.13
	3.4	3.1	2.05
	3.54	3.34	2.03
	3.35	3.25	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (3.23)	3.23 ↓ (3.27)	2.03 ↓ (2.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
26.5%

Draw
28.4%

Estrela da Amadora
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

28.2%

43.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

27.8%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	18.2%	63.6%

Covilhã - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Covilhã will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Estrela will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estrela: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Recent matches Covilhã is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Estrela is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Covilhã could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Estrela will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
19.03.23	Académico de Viseu - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Covilhã - Benfica B	2:1 ✺
05.03.23	Nacional - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
26.02.23	Covilhã - Farense	1:0 ✺
18.02.23	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LWLWT
- Estrela da Amadora
Portuguese Liga 2
18.03.23	Estrela da Amadora - Torreense	1:0 ✺
12.03.23	Leixões - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
05.03.23	Académico de Viseu - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
26.02.23	Estrela da Amadora - Tondela	0:0 ✺
18.02.23	Porto B - Estrela da Amadora	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
15.10.22	Estrela da Amadora - Covilhã	2:1
15.05.22	Estrela da Amadora - Covilhã	0:1
09.01.22	Covilhã - Estrela da Amadora	1:3

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