Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 22

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday


	Leon		Folgore Caratese

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.2	2.28
	2.82	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.83	3.24	2.28
	2.85	3.2	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.82)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	2.29 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leon
32.1%

Draw
28.1%

Folgore Caratese
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

28.3%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

27.8%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Leon have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Folgore Caratese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leon than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Leon - Folgore Caratese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
89', 1 - 0, ⚽,
90+7', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent form of Leon has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Folgore Caratese's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Leon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Including home match between the teams, Leon won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Leon	6	2	3	1	9:7	2	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Leon
Italian Serie D - Group B
25.01.26	Caldiero Terme - Leon	3:0 ✺
18.01.26	Leon - Breno	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Leon	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Leon - Milan Futuro	0:3 ✺
21.12.25	Leon - Casatese	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLT
- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie D - Group B
18.01.26	Castellanzese - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Folgore Caratese - Villa Valle	3:0 ✺
06.01.26	Varesina - Folgore Caratese	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Sondrio - Folgore Caratese	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Folgore Caratese - Brusaporto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
28.09.25	Folgore Caratese - Leon	0:0
27.02.22	Folgore Caratese - Leon	1:0
20.10.21	Leon - Folgore Caratese	2:5

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