Match Info

Serie D - Group B - Round 17

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday


	Sondrio		Folgore Caratese

	1	X	2
	3.95	3.35	1.78
	4.18	3.52	1.76	Watch
	4.29	3.34	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.14 ↑ (3.33)	3.4 ↓ (3.56)	1.77 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sondrio
21.9%

Draw
26.7%

Folgore Caratese
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

25.7%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

24.8%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sondrio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sondrio's form might have worsened.

Folgore Caratese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sondrio than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Sondrio - Folgore Caratese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Schiavino M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In recent matches, Sondrio has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Folgore Caratese is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Folgore Caratese is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sondrio won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Sondrio won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sondrio Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group B
14.12.25	Real Calepina - Sondrio	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Sondrio - Oltrepo	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Caldiero Terme - Sondrio	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Sondrio - Breno	2:2 ✺
16.11.25	Virtus CiseranoBergamo - Sondrio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TTWTL
- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie D - Group B
14.12.25	Folgore Caratese - Brusaporto	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Real Calepina - Folgore Caratese	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Oltrepo - Folgore Caratese	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Folgore Caratese - Scanzorosciate	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Caldiero Terme - Folgore Caratese	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
20.10.19	Sondrio - Folgore Caratese	1:1

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