Match Info

Primera B - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 1 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Sur (Envigado)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Envigado		Orsomarso

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.66	3.25	4.80
	1.71	3.15	4.60	Watch
	1.75	3.27	5.76
	1.67	3.54	5.3	Watch
	1.72	3.10	5.70
	1.74	3.41	5.02	Watch
	1.67	3.25	4.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (2)	3.28 ↑ (2.95)	5.14 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Envigado
54%

Draw
28%

Orsomarso
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

30.4%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

30.3%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Envigado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Envigado's performance.

Orsomarso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orsomarso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Envigado than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Envigado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orsomarso could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Envigado - Orsomarso Predictions

Users Predictions: Envigado will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Tovar A. (G) 19. Acuna S. 25. Cuero M. 15. Cuervo G. 28. Gamboa Valencia J. J. 99. Marulanda M. 5. Norena S. 2. Palacios D. 6. Palacios J. 17. Rodallega Y. 9. Rodriguez A.	1. Blanco I. (G) 6. Agamez S. 9. Arrechea S. 13. Barreiro J. 5. Barrios D. 7. Caicedo B. 27. Contreras J. 15. Gomez K. M. 26. Gonzalez S. 17. Hernandez J. 32. Ruiz M.
Substitutes
14. Betancurt M. 7. Dawson D. 8. Hurtado W. 33. Londono E. 1. Mora J. (G) 18. Mujica G. 22. Palacio J. 27. Quejada J. 13. Rey J.	16. Benitez Hernandez R. A. 24. Campaz B. 30. Cossio C. (G) 22. Matamba D. 8. Munoz J. 25. Villarreal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Dawson D. 🟥,
52', 🟨,
53', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
75', 🟨,
78', 🟨,

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 12th and 13th).

In recent outings, Envigado has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Orsomarso is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Envigado could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Envigado is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Envigado has recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:0 (averaging 1:0 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Envigado against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals.

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Envigado	11	2	6	3	12:11	1	12
14	Orsomarso	11	2	4	5	7:11	-4	10

Last Results with these Odds

Orsomarso - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 24.87%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Envigado FC
Colombian Primera B
27.09.26	Envigado - Atlético Cali	3:0 ✺
21.09.26	Real Cartagena - Envigado	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Envigado - Leones	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Boca Juniors de Cali - Envigado	2:2 ✺
01.09.26	Envigado - Unión Magdalena	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTTTL
- Orsomarso SC
Colombian Primera B
28.09.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Orsomarso	4:3 ✺
22.09.26	Real Santander - Orsomarso	0:0 ✺
14.09.26	Orsomarso - Atlético Cali	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	Orsomarso - Tigres	0:2 ✺
04.09.26	Orsomarso - Real Cartagena	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
01.03.26	Orsomarso - Envigado	0:1
Colombian Copa
30.05.25	Orsomarso - Envigado	0:1
20.03.24	Orsomarso - Envigado	0:1
05.03.24	Envigado - Orsomarso	1:0

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