Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 33

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Reino de León (León)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	3Cat, Esport3, FEF TV


	Leonesa		Gimnástic de Tarragona

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.2	4.75
	1.61	3.3	5
	1.81	3.2	4.6
	1.64	3.55	6.49
	1.76	3.11	5	Watch
	1.76	3.4	4.56
	1.81	3.2	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (2.08)	3.28 ↑ (3.05)	5 ↑ (3.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Leonesa
53.4%

Draw
28.2%

Gimnástic de Tarragona
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

30.1%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

30.1%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leonesa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leonesa's performance.

Gimnástic de Tarragona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gimnástic de Tarragona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leonesa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnástic de Tarragona than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gimnástic de Tarragona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Leonesa - Gimnástic de Tarragona Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Leonesa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Banuz M. (C) 12. Ortega G. 5. Fornos Q. 3. Satrustegui E. 17. Martinez A. 22. Pibe 16. Maestre S. 8. Barri 14. Bicho 10. Chacon L. 9. Justo M.	13. Rebollo D. (G) 20. Miguel 15. Leal A. 3. Perez G. 21. Oriol J. (C) 8. Montalvo M. 14. Sanz O. 23. Concha D. 19. Torres R. 22. Narro V. 9. Antonin
Substitutes
20. Alba T. 13. Amigo (G) 21. Artola J. 7. Calderon C. 19. Escobar A. 18. Lanchi 6. Presa K. 4. Rodri Suarez 26. Ruiz J. (G) 15. Ruiz V. 11. Samanes S.	5. Dufur U. 11. Fernandez M. 17. Fernandez P. 6. Gorostidi A. 10. Jardi J. 18. Jimenez A. 7. Junca D. 37. Pujol E. 1. Varo A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Concha D. 🟨,
36', Justo M. ↓, Ruiz V. ↑,
36', Satrustegui E. ↓, Escobar A. ↑,
39', Maestre S. 🟨,
45+1', Sanz O. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', Leal A. 🟨,
56', 1 - 0, Escobar A. ⚽,
58', Torres R. ↓, Jardi J. ↑,
58', Concha D. ↓, Fernandez P. ↑,
64', 🟨,
66', 2 - 0, Escobar A. (Pen),
67', Perez G. ↓, Gorostidi A. ↑,
67', Oriol J. ↓, Junca D. ↑,
69', 🟨,
70', 2 - 1, Narro V. ⚽,
73', Pastoriza P. ↓, Calderon C. ↑,
85', 🟨,
86', 🟨,
89', Chacon L. ↓, Samanes S. ↑,
90', Barri ↓, Presa K. ↑,
90+4', Antonin 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Recent matches Leonesa is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Gimnàstic is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Leonesa will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Leonesa won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:10 (average 2.2:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Leonesa won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:0 (average 2.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.25	Tarazona - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Leonesa - Arenteiro	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Barcelona B - Leonesa	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Leonesa - Real Unión de Irun	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LWLTT
- Gimnástic de Tarragona
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Unionistas de Salamanca	4:0 ✺
05.04.25	Sestao - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:2 ✺
30.03.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Ponferradina	5:1 ✺
22.03.25	Zamora - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.12.24	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Leonesa	2:3
28.04.24	Leonesa - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:0
25.11.23	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Leonesa	3:0
Spanish LaLiga2
19.05.18	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Leonesa	5:3
17.12.17	Leonesa - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:0

Upcoming Matches