Match Info

LATVIA: Virsliga - Round 24

Date: 28 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Daugavas stadions (Liepāja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	TV4
World	Onefootball app


	Liepāja		Valmiera

	1	X	2
	4.8	3.8	1.53
	4.5	4	1.63
	4.65	4.25	1.61
	4.62	4.23	1.57
	5	4	1.53
	4.85	3.94	1.57
	4.8	4	1.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.75 ↓ (7.25)	4.03 ↓ (4.25)	1.58 ↑ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liepāja
19.3%

Draw
22.7%

Valmiera
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.7%

21.6%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.1%

20.7%

68.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liepāja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Liepāja's performance.

Valmiera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Valmiera might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Liepāja that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valmiera than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valmiera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Liepāja - Valmiera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Petkovic D. (G) 72. Babic A. 55. Simic M. 6. Uskokovic L. 21. Grinbergs J. 22. Purtic S. 19. Melkis R. 91. Lausic M. 11. Diaw M. 10. Dodo 25. Karasauskas A.	12. Oss D. (G) 23. Tonisevs M. 2. Uldrikis N. 34. Korobenko A. 27. Birka E. 4. Veips R. 10. Vapne L. 14. Varslavans R. 22. Diop M. 24. Ndoye A. 77. Porsan-Clemente J.
Substitutes
9. Baghdasaryan A. 5. Chikovani N. 27. Diouf C. 7. Doudou P. D. N. 13. Faye C. 28. Kangars A. 84. Lazarevs V. (G) 44. Leidsman K. 70. Patijcuks D.	29. Bahamboula J. 15. Cesnieks K. 17. Duke C. 18. Dusaliejvs N. 7. Gustavo 8. Kawasaki S. 1. Olses C. (G) 41. Omori Y. 21. Penkevics K.
Coaches
Pertia T.	Kalnins G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Uldrikis N. 🟨,
28', Lausic M. 🟨,
45+2', Korobenko A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Diaw M. 🟨,
64', Lausic M. ↓, Diouf C. ↑,
66', Diop M. ↓, Bahamboula J. ↑,
73', Babic A. 🟨,
75', Melkis R. ↓, Patijcuks D. ↑,
79', Porsan-Clemente J. 🟨,
80', Porsan-Clemente J. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
89', Diaw M. ↓, Doudou P. D. N. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Liga and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Liepāja won 1.

Liepāja is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Valmiera is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Valmiera could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Valmiera is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Liepāja won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 18-29.

Including matches at home between the teams Liepāja won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 13-22.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Liepāja
Latvian Virsliga
21.07.24	Auda Riga - Liepāja	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.07.24	Víkingur Gøta - Liepāja	2:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
14.07.24	Jelgava - Liepāja	2:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.07.24	Liepāja - Víkingur Gøta	1:1 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
07.07.24	Liepāja - Riga	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWTL
- Valmiera FK
Latvian Virsliga
21.07.24	Valmiera - Grobiņa	0:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
14.07.24	Tukums 2000 - Valmiera	2:3 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
06.07.24	Auda Riga - Valmiera	0:1 ✺
02.07.24	Valmiera - Riga	2:2 ✺
26.06.24	RFS - Valmiera	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
24.05.24	Liepāja - Valmiera	0:3
14.04.24	Valmiera - Liepāja	0:1
17.09.23	Liepāja - Valmiera	1:4
29.06.23	Valmiera - Liepāja	1:1
27.05.23	Liepāja - Valmiera	1:2
18.03.23	Valmiera - Liepāja	0:1
12.11.22	Liepāja - Valmiera	0:2

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