Match Info

OBOS-ligaen - Round 5

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Åråsen Stadion (Lillestrøm)

Referee: Hatam A. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1


	Lillestrøm SK		Moss

	1	X	2
	1.38	5.25	6.25
	1.42	4.5	6.25
	1.4	5	7	Watch
	1.39	4.99	7.39
	1.4	4.79	6.99	Watch
	1.4	4.33	6.5
	1.39	5.28	6.28	Watch
	1.4	5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.48)	4.89 ↑ (4.5)	6.71 ↑ (6.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lillestrøm SK
66.9%

Draw
19.1%

Moss
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

20.9%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

19.8%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lillestrøm SK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Moss has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lillestrøm SK than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moss than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Lillestrøm SK - Moss Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lillestrøm (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Moss (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lillestrøm (votes: 1 - 50%). Moss (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Hedenstad M. (G) 2. Ranger L. 4. Garnas E. B. 28. Gabrielsen R. (C) 11. Elkaer F. 8. Karlsbakk M. 6. Hoff V. 17. Kitolano E. 15. Drammeh S. 33. Diop M. 20. Felix Va	1. Eriksen M. E. (G) 24. Welinder M. 3. Strande K. (C) 5. Race E. 33. Dahl T. 4. Harrison K. 11. Jakobsen T. 6. Hapnes A. 8. Vold Krohg H. 20. Sorensen K. 10. Hegland B.
Substitutes
14. Adedeji J. 23. Asen G. 5. Foss S. 1. Hagerup S. (G) 18. Krygard K. 64. Larsson E. 19. Tonnesen K. 27. Waehler M. 32. Woxen H.	49. Afonso M. 37. Antonsen M. 23. Barros J. 21. Gronli S. 19. Memedov A. 17. Mendy L. 22. Ogbole J. 12. Sundling J. (G)
Coaches
Odegaard H.	Myhre T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', Garnas E. B. ↓, Foss S. ↑,
36', 1 - 0, Diop M. ⚽, Hoff V. (A),
44', 2 - 0, Drammeh S. ⚽, Kitolano E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Strande K. ↓, Mendy L. ↑,
55', Elkaer F. 🟨,
56', 3 - 0, Diop M. ⚽, Elkaer F. (A),
66', Vold Krohg H. ↓, Gronli S. ↑,
66', Sorensen K. ↓, Memedov A. ↑,
66', Welinder M. ↓, Antonsen M. ↑,
68', Diop M. ↓, Krygard K. ↑,
68', Elkaer F. ↓, Tonnesen K. ↑,
68', Felix Va ↓, Waehler M. ↑,
70', Karlsbakk M. 🟨,
77', Jakobsen T. ↓, Afonso M. ↑,
81', Karlsbakk M. ↓, Woxen H. ↑,
85', Afonso M. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ OBOS~ligaen (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 9).

Lillestrøm is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Moss has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Lillestrøm has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lillestrøm is the clear favorite.

We predict that Lillestrøm will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lillestrøm won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lillestrøm SK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
27.04.25	Lyn - Lillestrøm SK	0:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
24.04.25	Eidsvold Turn - Lillestrøm SK	0:2 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
21.04.25	Stabæk - Lillestrøm SK	0:3 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
13.04.25	Skjetten - Lillestrøm SK	0:5 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
05.04.25	Lillestrøm SK - Odd	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWWW
- Moss FK
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
27.04.25	Moss - Stabæk	4:2 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
24.04.25	Follo - Moss	2:3 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
21.04.25	Kongsvinger - Moss	6:0 ✺
05.04.25	Moss - Ranheim	2:0 ✺
01.04.25	Raufoss - Moss	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian NM Cup
07.05.14	Moss - Lillestrøm SK	0:5

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