Match Info

League One - Round 3

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: LNER stadium (Lincoln)

Referee: Brook C. (Eng)


	Lincoln City		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.3	4	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.5
	1.92	3.45	3.7	Watch
	2	3.61	4.01
	1.37	4.59	8.09	Watch
	2	3.25	3.5
	1.93	3.29	4.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.09)	3.56 ↑ (3.4)	4.41 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
51.1%

Draw
27.1%

Plymouth Argyle
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

27.7%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27.8%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lincoln City's performance.

Plymouth Argyle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Plymouth Argyle might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lincoln City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Plymouth Argyle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	25%	8.3%

Lincoln City - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Lincoln will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Plymouth will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lincoln: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lincoln (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Lincoln (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Plymouth (2.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lincoln (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Plymouth (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wickens G. (G) 2. Darikwa T. (C) 22. Hamer T. 15. Bradley S. 6. Towler R. 8. Bayliss T. 14. McGrandles C. 17. Street R. 34. Draper F. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 9. Collins J.	21. Ashby-Hammond L. (G) 6. Szucs K. 4. Wiredu B. 44. Palsson V. (C) 29. Sorinola M. 19. Boateng M. 23. Ibrahim B. 10. Amaechi X. 17. Watts C. 11. Mumba B. 27. Pepple A.
Substitutes
42. Carlisle C. 11. Hamilton E. 18. House B. 13. Jeacock Z. (G) 37. Okewoye G. 36. Okoro Z. 12. Ring E.	13. Baker Z. (G) 14. Benarous A. 39. Finn T. 22. Galloway B. 38. Hatch J. 18. Oseni O. 24. Roberts C.
Coaches
Skubala M.	Cleverley T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Bayliss T. ⚽,
10', Towler R. 🟨,
23', Ibrahim B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Ibrahim B. ↓, Roberts C. ↑,
46', Palsson V. ↓, Galloway B. ↑,
54', Watts C. 🟨,
57', Pepple A. ↓, Oseni O. ↑,
57', Watts C. ↓, Finn T. ↑,
59', 2 - 0, Collins J. ⚽,
65', 3 - 0, Collins J. (Pen),
67', Collins J. ↓, House B. ↑,
70', Draper F. 🟨,
73', Hackett-Fairchild R. ↓, Ring E. ↑,
73', Draper F. ↓, Hamilton E. ↑,
74', Street R. 🟨,
74', Wiredu B. 🟨,
75', House B. 🟨,
78', 3 - 1, Oseni O. ⚽, Amaechi X. (A),
80', 3 - 2, Amaechi X. ⚽, Mumba B. (A),
83', Sorinola M. ↓, Benarous A. ↑,
86', Wiredu B. 🟨,
90', Darikwa T. 🟨,
90+3', Galloway B. 🟨,
90+5', Hamilton E. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lincoln won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Lincoln could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Lincoln: House B. (Injury) Jackson A. (Red Card) Jefferies D. (Injury) Montsma L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Plymouth: Edwards J. (Hamstring Injury) Hazard C. (Knee Injury) Issaka F. (Thigh Injury) MacKenzie J. (Inactive) Pleguezuelo J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Lincoln: Hackett-Fairchild R. (Injury) Moylan J. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Lincoln won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lincoln won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Lincoln City - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 45.05%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Plymouth Argyle - the odds 3.46 are the expected chance of winning is 27.21%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English League Cup
12.08.25	Harrogate Town - Lincoln City	1:3 ✺
English League One
09.08.25	AFC Wimbledon - Lincoln City	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Lincoln City - Reading	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Lincoln City - West Bromwich Albion	4:2 ✺
22.07.25	Grimsby Town - Lincoln City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WLWWL
- Plymouth Argyle
English League Cup
12.08.25	Plymouth Argyle - Queens Park Rangers	3:2 ✺
English League One
09.08.25	Bolton Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Plymouth Argyle - Barnsley	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Plymouth Argyle - Bristol City	0:2 ✺
23.07.25	Torquay United - Plymouth Argyle	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
10.04.23	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	0:2
12.11.22	Lincoln City - Plymouth Argyle	1:1
22.01.22	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	1:2
02.10.21	Lincoln City - Plymouth Argyle	2:2
27.02.21	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	4:3
English FA Cup
28.11.20	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	2:0
English League One
20.10.20	Lincoln City - Plymouth Argyle	2:0

Upcoming Matches