Match Info

ENGLAND: League One - Round 12

Date: 19 October 2024, Saturday

Location: LNER stadium (Lincoln)

Referee: Mather S. (Eng)


	Lincoln City		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	4	3.3	1.91	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2
	4	3.4	1.95	Watch
	4.05	3.53	1.96
	3.82	3.37	1.97
	4	3.4	1.95
	3.88	3.54	1.95	Watch
	3.75	3.4	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↑ (3.83)	3.41 ↓ (3.42)	1.96 ↓ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
24.2%

Draw
27.7%

Birmingham City
48.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.7%

27.6%

47.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.4%

29.1%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

Lincoln City - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Lincoln will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Birmingham will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wickens G. (G) 22. Hamer T. 15. O'Connor P. 23. Roughan S. 6. Erhahon E. 2. Darikwa T. 14. McGrandles C. 28. Moylan J. 16. Jefferies D. 18. House B. 9. Cadamarteri B.	21. Allsop R. (G) 19. Gardner-Hickman T. 4. Klarer C. 25. Davies B. 20. Cochrane A. 24. Iwata T. 13. Paik Seung-Ho 14. Anderson K. 18. Willumsson W. T. 7. Hansson E. 9. May A.
Substitutes
34. Draper F. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 11. Hamilton E. 10. McKiernan J. J. 4. Montsma L. 21. Pardington J. (G) 12. Ring E.	17. Dykes L. 2. Laird E. 12. Leonard M. 45. Peacock-Farrell B. (G) 23. Sampsted A. 5. Sanderson D. 33. Yokoyama A.
Coaches
Skubala M.	Davies C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Cadamarteri B. ⚽, O'Connor P. (A),
14', 1 - 1, Anderson K. ⚽, May A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', Klarer C. 🟨,
50', Cochrane A. 🟨,
52', 1 - 2, Willumsson W. T. ⚽, May A. (A),
55', Hansson E. ↓, Yokoyama A. ↑,
59', Cadamarteri B. ↓, Draper F. ↑,
59', Jefferies D. ↓, Ring E. ↑,
60', Moylan J. ↓, Hamilton E. ↑,
66', Gardner-Hickman T. ↓, Laird E. ↑,
66', May A. ↓, Dykes L. ↑,
70', House B. ↓, Hackett-Fairchild R. ↑,
72', Hackett-Fairchild R. (Pen),
79', 1 - 3, Anderson K. ⚽, Willumsson W. T. (A),
79', Darikwa T. ↓, Montsma L. ↑,
83', Anderson K. ↓, Leonard M. ↑,
85', Iwata T. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship).

Now both teams are in good shape.

In this match Birmingham is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Grimsby Town - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
English League One
05.10.24	Lincoln City - Leyton Orient	2:1 ✺
01.10.24	Blackpool - Lincoln City	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	Cambridge United - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
21.09.24	Lincoln City - Wigan Athletic	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWTWT
- Birmingham City
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Shrewsbury Town - Birmingham City	0:4 ✺
English League One
05.10.24	Charlton Athletic - Birmingham City	1:0 ✺
01.10.24	Birmingham City - Huddersfield Town	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Birmingham City - Peterborough United	3:2 ✺
21.09.24	Rotherham United - Birmingham City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWWW

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