Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Belvedere (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Liverpool Montevideo		Progreso

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	4.2	Watch
	1.65	3.75	4.50
	1.65	3.6	4.5
	1.79	3.69	4.68
	1.68	3.86	4.76	Watch
	1.77	3.6	4.55
	1.75	3.68	4.41	Watch
	1.75	3.65	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.54)	3.67 ↓ (3.75)	4.49 ↓ (5.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liverpool Montevideo
54.1%

Draw
25.3%

Progreso
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

24.1%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

22.6%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liverpool Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Liverpool will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bernatene M. (G) 3. Strasorier S. 23. Castillo E. 18. Cayetano A. 24. Haller R. 6. Milano S. 16. Acosta L. 34. Lewis K. 26. Brizuela T. 7. Martinez F. (C) 19. Bentancourt R.	1. Bacchia R. (G) 24. Alvarez E. 15. Martin M. 6. Saravia M. 40. Cougo A. 5. Pinheiro A. (C) 25. Cristobal R. 16. Trasante G. 10. Lopez N. 7. Ocampo A. 8. Juambeltz M.
Substitutes
31. Barcelo F. 25. Campana M. (G) 10. Degregorio R. M. 17. de Mello G. 15. Laquidain S. 8. Mir M. 29. Olivera E. 33. Pintos J. 27. Romero D. 22. Zabala D.	11. Acosta N. 21. Bruschi S. 13. Carroso H. 30. Codagnone A. 23. Copelotti M. 4. Couture L. 17. De Leon F. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 27. Silva G. 93. Silva G.
Coaches
Fossati J.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', Acosta L. 🟨,
18', Alvarez E. 🟨,
34', Lewis K. 🟨,
36', Saravia M. 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Milano S. ⚽,
45+1', Trasante G. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Saravia M. ↓, Carroso H. ↑,
46', Trasante G. ↓, Acosta N. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Lopez N. ⚽,
51', Acosta L. ↓, Romero D. ↑,
62', Martinez F. ↓, Degregorio R. M. ↑,
62', Lewis K. ↓, Zabala D. ↑,
67', Haller R. ↓, Pintos J. ↑,
67', Brizuela T. ↓, Barcelo F. ↑,
71', Degregorio R. M. 🟨,
73', Juambeltz M. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
77', Lopez N. 🟨,
79', Bentancourt R. 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Zabala D. ⚽,
83', Cougo A. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
88', 3 - 1, Zabala D. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 2, Silva G. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Liverpool won 3.

Liverpool has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Progreso has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Progreso could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Liverpool is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Liverpool has recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:21 (averaging 2:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Liverpool against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 13:11 goals (averaging 1.9:1.6 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
27.09.26	Central Español - Liverpool Montevideo	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
23.09.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Colón Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
14.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Liverpool Montevideo	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWTLW
- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.09.26	Progreso - Racing Montevideo	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Boston River - Progreso	1:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Progreso - Cerro	1:3 ✺
07.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
31.03.26	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	3:3
26.10.25	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	3:1
27.04.25	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2
03.11.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	2:1
28.04.24	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	2:1
03.10.21	Liverpool Montevideo - Progreso	0:1
04.06.21	Progreso - Liverpool Montevideo	1:3

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