Match Info

Premiership - Relegation Group - Round 38

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: The Home of the Set Fare Arena (Livingston)

Referee: Lee R. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Livingston		Kilmarnock

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.6	2.45	Watch
	2.62	3.45	2.48	Watch
	2.7	3.61	2.53
	2.87	3.43	2.42	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.45
	2.62	3.7	2.57	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.6)	3.53 ↑ (3.45)	2.48 (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livingston
35.5%

Draw
26.6%

Kilmarnock
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

26.9%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

26%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livingston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Livingston than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Livingston - Kilmarnock Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Livingston will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Kilmarnock will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kilmarnock: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Prior J. (G) 2. Kerr C. 23. Kabongolo B. 27. Wilson D. (C) 26. Montano C. 20. Danso E. 25. Tait M. 15. Smith L. 17. May S. 10. McKay B. 9. Muirhead R.	1. Stryjek M. (G) 21. Schjonning-Larsen M. 14. Stanger G. 6. Deas R. (C) 3. Thompson D. 52. Curtis F. 36. Tshibola A. 18. Lowery T. 11. Kiltie G. 20. Clescenco N. 44. Hugill J.
Substitutes
37. Arfield S. 36. Culbert S. 6. Denholm A. 3. Fati B. 14. Hamilton J. (G) 7. Nouble J. 22. Shinnie A. 21. Tamm A. 29. Zimmerman J.	19. Anderson B. 39. Bowie E. 8. Lyons B. 16. Magennis K. 7. McKenzie R. 25. Schilte-Brown E. 22. Thomson J. 12. Watson D. 30. Wright K. (G)
Coaches
Arfield S.	McCann N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
19', 1 - 0, May S. ⚽, McKay B. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Hugill J. ⚽, Thompson D. (A),
31', Danso E. 🟨,
34', 1 - 2, Clescenco N. ⚽, Kiltie G. (A),
38', Thompson D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Schjonning-Larsen M. ↓, Lyons B. ↑,
53', 1 - 3, Curtis F. ⚽, Thompson D. (A),
56', Muirhead R. ↓, Nouble J. ↑,
56', Danso E. ↓, Denholm A. ↑,
56', McKay B. ↓, Zimmerman J. ↑,
58', 1 - 4, Hugill J. ⚽, Deas R. (A),
62', Tshibola A. ↓, Thomson J. ↑,
62', Stanger G. ↓, Schilte-Brown E. ↑,
66', Clescenco N. ↓, Watson D. ↑,
66', Smith L. ↓, Culbert S. ↑,
70', Lyons B. 🟨,
84', Thompson D. ↓, Bowie E. ↑,
85', Tait M. ↓, Fati B. ↑,

Preview

Livingston is Relegated to Championship

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Livingston won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Livingston has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Livingston: McLennan C. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Kilmarnock: Brandon J. (Injury) Daniels D. (Knee Injury) John-Jules T. (Muscle Injury) Kennedy M. (Hip Injury) Roos K. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Livingston: Bokila J. (Inactive) McGowan R. (Inactive) Pittman S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Kilmarnock: Lyons B. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Livingston won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Livingston won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 1.3:0.6).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Kilmarnock: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Kilmarnock	7	1	2	4	6:15	-9	5

Last Results with these Odds

Kilmarnock - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.42%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Livingston FC
Scottish Premier League
12.05.26	Dundee United - Livingston	0:0 ✺
09.05.26	Dundee - Livingston	3:0 ✺
01.05.26	Livingston - Aberdeen	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	St. Mirren - Livingston	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Dundee United - Livingston	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TLTWL
- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish Premier League
12.05.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	St. Mirren - Kilmarnock	0:3 ✺
02.05.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee United	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Aberdeen - Kilmarnock	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
21.03.26	Kilmarnock - Livingston	2:0
10.01.26	Livingston - Kilmarnock	1:1
02.08.25	Kilmarnock - Livingston	2:2
Scottish League Cup
16.07.25	Kilmarnock - Livingston	1:0
Scottish Premier League
07.02.24	Kilmarnock - Livingston	1:0
16.12.23	Livingston - Kilmarnock	0:0
21.10.23	Kilmarnock - Livingston	3:1

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