Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Armando Picchi (Livorno)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252
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	Livorno		Ascoli

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.75	3.1	1.98
	4.04	3.21	1.98
	25.00	15.16	1.00	Watch
	3.81	3.38	1.96	Watch
	2.99	3.08	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.92 ↑ (2.75)	5.59 ↑ (3.1)	1.84 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Livorno
14.9%

Draw
21.1%

Ascoli
64%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

28.5%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

28.4%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Livorno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Livorno's form might have worsened.

Ascoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+24.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ascoli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Livorno than the current prediction. (+17.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Livorno, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (-24.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ascoli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Livorno - Ascoli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Seghetti J. (G) 2. Gentile D. 6. Monaco S. 5. Nwachukwu S. J. 77. Mawete J. C. 8. Welbeck N. 28. Hamlili Z. 19. Antoni E. 95. Marchesi F. 70. Cioffi A. 13. Di Carmine S.	1. Vitale S. (G) 23. Alagna M. 30. Curado M. 3. Nicoletti M. 17. Guiebre A. 4. Damiani S. 62. Milanese T. 10. Del Sole F. 25. Rizzo Pinna A. 15. D'Uffizi S. 35. Gori G.
Substitutes
49. Baldi L. 14. Biondi K. 16. Calvosa A. 22. Ciobanu N. D. (G) 9. Dionisi F. 15. Ghezzi S. 20. Haveri K. 11. Malva A. 23. Marinari J. 4. Odjer M. 17. Panaioli L. 18. Panattoni M. 55. Peralta D. 1. Tani F. (G)	24. Bando A. 46. Barosi D. (G) 41. Brzan R. (G) 9. Chakir M. A. 18. Corazza S. 80. Corradini G. 27. Cozzoli F. 19. Menna D. 6. Ndoj E. 2. Pagliai G. 29. Palazzino F. 33. Rizzo N. 7. Silipo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
5', 0 - 1, Curado M. ⚽,
7', 0 - 2, Gori G. ⚽,
36', Hamlili Z. 🟨,
38', 0 - 3, D'Uffizi S. ⚽,
42', Milanese T. 🟨,
45', Mawete J. C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Hamlili Z. ↓, Ghezzi S. ↑,
46', Del Sole F. ↓, Pagliai G. ↑,
46', Mawete J. C. ↓, Odjer M. ↑,
46', Monaco S. ↓, Baldi L. ↑,
55', Gori G. ↓, Chakir M. A. ↑,
59', Marchesi F. ↓, Biondi K. ↑,
63', Cioffi A. 🟨,
63', Alagna M. 🟨,
72', Damiani S. ↓, Bando A. ↑,
72', D'Uffizi S. ↓, Palazzino F. ↑,
72', Milanese T. ↓, Ndoj E. ↑,
85', Di Carmine S. ↓, Dionisi F. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Livorno won 2.

Livorno is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ascoli is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ascoli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Livorno won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Livorno won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Ascoli - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 39.31%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Livorno 1915
Italian Serie C Group B
14.09.25	Vis Pesaro - Livorno	3:0 ✺
07.09.25	Livorno - Guidonia Montecelio	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Juventus U23 - Livorno	2:1 ✺
22.08.25	Livorno - Ternana	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.25	Sassari Torres - Livorno	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLWL
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
14.09.25	Perugia - Ascoli	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Ascoli - Juventus U23	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Ternana - Ascoli	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Ascoli - Pianese	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Pineto - Ascoli	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.7 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
01.02.20	Livorno - Ascoli	0:3
14.09.19	Ascoli - Livorno	2:0
10.03.19	Ascoli - Livorno	1:1
27.10.18	Livorno - Ascoli	1:0
14.05.16	Ascoli - Livorno	1:3
23.12.15	Livorno - Ascoli	1:3
06.04.13	Livorno - Ascoli	3:0

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