Match Info

Queensland Premier League - Round 14

Date: 5 June 2026, Friday

Location: Cornubia Park (Logan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	FQTV


	Logan Lightning		Capalaba

	1	X	2
	1.43	4.60	5.00
	1.44	4.50	5.30
	1.43	4.74	5.48
	1.49	4.79	5.12	Watch
	1.44	4.20	5.00
	1.50	4.95	4.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.6)	4.63 ↑ (4.3)	5.14 ↑ (4.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Logan Lightning
62.6%

Draw
19.7%

Capalaba
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

21.2%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

18.5%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Logan Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Logan Lightning's performance.

Capalaba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Logan Lightning than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Logan Lightning that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Capalaba than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Capalaba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Logan Lightning - Capalaba Predictions

Users Predictions: Logan Lightning will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 11 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Logan Lightning won 4.

Logan Lightning has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Capalaba is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Logan Lightning may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Logan Lightning has had a series of away games.

In this match, Logan Lightning is seen as the favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Logan Lightning won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 42:29. (average 2.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Logan Lightning won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:14. (average 2.4:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Logan Lightning
Australian Queensland Premier League
23.05.26	North Star - Logan Lightning	1:3 ✺
10.05.26	St. George Willawong - Logan Lightning	0:2 ✺
02.05.26	Logan Lightning - Broadbeach United	0:4 ✺
19.04.26	Sunshine Coast Wanderers - Logan Lightning	5:2 ✺
10.04.26	Ipswich FC - Logan Lightning	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLLL
- Capalaba FC
Australian Queensland Premier League
30.05.26	Caboolture Sports - Capalaba	2:1 ✺
23.05.26	Brisbane Strikers - Capalaba	8:0 ✺
10.05.26	Capalaba - Ipswich FC	2:4 ✺
24.04.26	Capalaba - North Star	2:3 ✺
17.04.26	Holland Park Hawks - Capalaba	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian Queensland Premier League
07.03.26	Capalaba - Logan Lightning	1:3
15.06.25	Logan Lightning - Capalaba	3:1
09.05.25	Capalaba - Logan Lightning	1:4
05.07.24	Logan Lightning - Capalaba	1:1
11.06.24	Capalaba - Logan Lightning	1:2
Australian NPL Queensland
06.08.22	Logan Lightning - Capalaba	3:2
07.05.22	Capalaba - Logan Lightning	2:2

Logan Lightning - Capalaba: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide