Match Info

Russian Cup - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 4 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: RZD Arena (Moscow)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lokomotiv Moscow		CSKA Moscow

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.68	2.67
	2.50	3.60	2.60
	2.54	3.50	2.85	Watch
	2.13	3.50	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.52)	3.57 ↑ (3.4)	2.72 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lokomotiv Moscow
38.8%

Draw
26.4%

CSKA Moscow
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

27%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

25.9%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lokomotiv Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

CSKA Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lokomotiv Moscow than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA Moscow than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Lantratov I. (G) 24. Nenakhov M. 85. Morozov E. 14. Dzhikiya G. 45. Silyanov A. 8. Kovalenko A. 10. Batrakov A. (C) 88. Shchetinin M. 19. Rudenko A. 11. Rakov V. 32. Vera L.	39. Borisko M. (G) 22. Gajic M. 90. Lukin M. 23. Abdulkadyrov D. 2. Matheus Reis 6. Barinov D. 7. Matheus Alves 31. Kislyak M. 62. Firov I. 11. Musaev T. 17. Glebov K.
Substitutes
7. Bakaev Z. 74. Chevardin D. 75. Eremeev I. 63. Golubev V. 93. Karpukas A. 3. Lucas Fasson 5. Nyamsi G. 9. Pinyaev S. 59. Pogostnov E. 17. Saltykov N. 16. Veselov D. (G)	52. Bandikyan A. 99. Barovskiy N. (G) 32. Gondou L. 37. Henrique Carmo 4. Joao Victor 18. Kozlov D. 3. Krugovoy D. 27. Moises 10. Oblyakov I. 20. Popovic M. 49. Torop V. (G) 84. Vakulich A.
Coaches
Galaktionov M.	Igdisamov D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', Rudenko A. ↓, Bakaev Z. ↑,
40', 0 - 1, Matheus Reis ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kislyak M. ↓, Oblyakov I. ↑,
46', Glebov K. ↓, Popovic M. ↑,
46', Shchetinin M. ↓, Karpukas A. ↑,
46', Vera L. ↓, Eremeev I. ↑,
60', Kovalenko A. ↓, Pinyaev S. ↑,
60', Rakov V. ↓, Golubev V. ↑,
61', Gajic M. ↓, Krugovoy D. ↑,
62', Firov I. ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
76', Matheus Alves ↓, Kozlov D. ↑,
85', Oblyakov I. 🟨,
87', Morozov E. 🟨,
90', Barinov D. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Silyanov A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Lokomotiv has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 29:26. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lokomotiv won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.7:1).

Outrights of Russian Cup for now

CSKA Moscow: 6.97% Lokomotiv Moscow: 1.82%

Last Results with these Odds

Lokomotiv Moscow - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.48%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lokomotiv Moscow
Russian Premier League
01.08.26	Dynamo Makhachkala - Lokomotiv Moscow	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Akhmat Grozny	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Rubin Kazan	1:3 ✺
14.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:0 ✺
11.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - Spartak Moscow	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTLWW
- CSKA Moscow
Russian Premier League
01.08.26	CSKA Moscow - Krylya Sovetov	1:1 ✺
24.07.26	CSKA Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Dynamo Moscow - CSKA Moscow	5:2 ✺
14.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:0 ✺
04.07.26	CSKA Moscow - Botafogo RJ	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TWLL?

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
14.07.26	Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow	1:0
Russian Premier League
17.05.26	CSKA Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:1
Club Friendly
21.02.26	CSKA Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	3:2
Russian Premier League
18.10.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow	3:0
Russian Cup
01.10.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow	0:1 penalties
30.07.25	CSKA Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow	2:1
Russian Premier League
19.05.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - CSKA Moscow	2:2

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