Match Info

Super League - Round 22

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Lokomotiv Stadium (Tashkent)

Referee: Nazhafaliev A. (Uzb)


	Lokomotiv Tashkent		Neftchi Fargona

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.30	1.98
	3.25	3.35	1.92
	3.74	3.65	1.96
	3.28	3.49	2.02	Watch
	3.55	3.6	1.92
	3.74	3.74	1.87
	3.3	3.45	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (3.3)	3.51 ↑ (3.4)	1.95 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lokomotiv Tashkent
26.8%

Draw
26.1%

Neftchi Fargona
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

27.1%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

27.6%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lokomotiv Tashkent has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Neftchi Fargona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lokomotiv Tashkent than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Fargona than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Lokomotiv Tashkent - Neftchi Fargona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kozlov A. (G) 26. Yuldashev A. 17. Mirzaev S. 15. Susnjar A. 28. Mukhammadiev S. 18. Kucherenko O. 14. Ivanov N. 33. Zoteev O. 9. Nurulloev S. 11. Abdukholikov T. 8. Tupliev B.	1. Ergashev B. (G) 52. Kouao K. 15. Abduganiyev N. 20. Gofurov A. 34. Sayfiev F. 5. Alibaev I. 7. Ismoilov A. 10. Iskanderov J. 77. Ratinho 22. Odilov A. 32. Marusic Z.
Substitutes
7. Abraev K. 30. Bakhodirov J. 21. Elichich I. 32. Khoshimboev J. 22. Poyonov S. 12. Shevchenko N. (G) 23. Turopov D. 6. Uktamov O. 25. Yakhshiboev J.	19. Erimbetov A. 30. Fomin R. 14. Giyosov K. 17. Murotov A. 18. Perica S. 27. Sarsenbaev N. 71. Toshmirzaev B. 45. Turaev A. (G) 21. Ubaydullaev M.
Coaches
Jelicic M.	Ismoilov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Ratinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', 🟨,
62', 0 - 1, Marusic Z. ⚽,
80', 🟨,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 4th and 2nd in the Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lokomotiv Tashkent won 1.

Lokomotiv Tashkent is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Neftchi Fargona have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Neftchi Fargona holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Lokomotiv Tashkent has recorded 8 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:18 (averaging 2:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lokomotiv Tashkent against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 20:11 goals (averaging 2.5:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Neftchi Fargona	23	16	4	3	52:19	33	52
4	Lok. Tashkent	22	10	5	7	36:28	8	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lokomotiv Tashkent
Uzbek Cup
15.09.26	Bunyodkor - Lokomotiv Tashkent	0:1 ✺
Uzbek League
11.09.26	Lokomotiv Tashkent - Mashal Mubarek	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Navbahor Namangan - Lokomotiv Tashkent	1:1 ✺
26.08.26	Lokomotiv Tashkent - Bunyodkor	4:1 ✺
20.08.26	Xorazm Urganch - Lokomotiv Tashkent	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWTWW
- Neftchi Fargona
AFC Champions League
14.09.26	Neftchi Fargona - Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	1:0 ✺
Uzbek League
09.09.26	Neftchi Fargona - Surkhon Termez	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Nasaf Qarshi - Neftchi Fargona	6:2 ✺
Uzbek Cup
29.08.26	Neftchi Fargona - Pakhtakor	1:0 ✺
Uzbek League
18.08.26	Buxoro - Neftchi Fargona	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uzbek League
20.03.26	Neftchi Fargona - Lokomotiv Tashkent	3:1
30.11.24	Lokomotiv Tashkent - Neftchi Fargona	2:3
27.06.24	Neftchi Fargona - Lokomotiv Tashkent	1:1
03.10.22	Lokomotiv Tashkent - Neftchi Fargona	1:3
05.05.22	Neftchi Fargona - Lokomotiv Tashkent	0:1
11.08.18	Lokomotiv Tashkent - Neftchi Fargona	1:1
04.05.18	Neftchi Fargona - Lokomotiv Tashkent	1:4

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