Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco (Lorca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	Lorca Deportiva		Almeria B

	1	X	2
	1.82	3	4.2
	1.82	3.15	4.15
	1.82	3.23	4.37	Watch
	1.85	3	4.33
	1.81	3.13	4.42
	1.84	3.14	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.59)	3.11 ↓ (3.39)	4.3 ↓ (5.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
49.7%

Draw
29.2%

Almeria B
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

26.7%

16.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

26.1%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorca Deportiva's form might have worsened.

Almeria B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorca Deportiva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almeria B than the current prediction. (-5%)

Lorca Deportiva - Almeria B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Fernandez S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Lorca Deportiva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lorca Deportiva is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lorca Deportiva won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Including home match between the teams, Lorca Deportiva won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
21.12.25	Xerez Deportivo - Lorca Deportiva	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Lorca Deportiva - Águilas	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Antoniano - Lorca Deportiva	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Atlético Malagueño	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Melilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLLWW
- Almeria B
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Estepona - Almeria B	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Almeria B - Melilla	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Puente Genil - Almeria B	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Almeria B - Antoniano	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	CD Extremadura - Almeria B	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
21.08.24	Lorca Deportiva - Almeria B	2:2

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