Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 13

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco (Lorca)


	Lorca Deportiva		Atlético Malagueño

	1	X	2
	1.88	3	3.95
	1.96	3.1	4.54
	1.70	3.48	4.76	Watch
	1.93	3.44	3.85
	1.86	3.1	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.7)	3.22 ↓ (3.48)	4.29 ↓ (4.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
49.6%

Draw
28.7%

Atlético Malagueño
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

26.5%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

25.1%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Atlético Malagueño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorca Deportiva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Malagueño than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Lorca Deportiva - Atlético Malagueño Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Morros ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 1, Rafita ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 1, Martinez Nicolas Á. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Lorca Deportiva has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Malagueño's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lorca Deportiva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lorca Deportiva is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
23.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Melilla	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Xerez CD - Lorca Deportiva	0:1 ✺
12.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Minera	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Estepona - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.3 WWWWW
- Atlético Malagueño
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
22.11.25	Atlético Malagueño - La Unión	1:3 ✺
16.11.25	Linares Deportivo - Atlético Malagueño	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Atlético Malagueño - UCAM Murcia	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Recreativo Huelva - Atlético Malagueño	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Atlético Malagueño - Águilas	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LTWLL

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