Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco (Lorca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	Lorca Deportiva		Melilla

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.1	4.05
	1.89	3.28	3.93	Watch
	1.87	3.13	4.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.85)	3.17 ↑ (3.17)	4.02 ↑ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorca Deportiva
48.7%

Draw
28.7%

Melilla
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

28.5%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

27.7%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorca Deportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Melilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorca Deportiva than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melilla than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Lorca Deportiva - Melilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Escobar Hernandez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 15 in the zone Relegation).

Lorca Deportiva is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Melilla has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lorca Deportiva is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lorca Deportiva won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Lorca Deportiva won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Lorca Deportiva
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
16.11.25	Xerez CD - Lorca Deportiva	0:1 ✺
12.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Puente Genil	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Lorca Deportiva - Minera	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Estepona - Lorca Deportiva	1:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Lorca Deportiva - Almería	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 WWWWL
- UD Melilla
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
16.11.25	Melilla - Xerez Deportivo	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Águilas - Melilla	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Melilla - CD Extremadura	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Antoniano - Melilla	3:2 ✺
19.10.25	Melilla - Atlético Malagueño	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
18.02.18	Melilla - Lorca Deportiva	1:2
01.10.17	Lorca Deportiva - Melilla	0:0

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