Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 15

Date: 6 June 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Eduardo Gallardo (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Barraza J. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Los Andes		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	1.9	2.9	5.25	Watch
	1.88	2.85	4.6
	1.92	2.92	4.35	Watch
	2.02	2.88	4.71
	1.98	2.95	4.51	Watch
	1.91	2.88	4.5
	1.92	3	4.37	Watch
	1.92	2.92	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.23)	2.91 ↓ (3)	4.58 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Los Andes
48%

Draw
31.8%

Alvarado
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

31.2%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

28.7%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Los Andes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Los Andes's performance.

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alvarado might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Los Andes than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Los Andes that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alvarado could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Los Andes - Alvarado Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Los Andes will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Alvarado will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Los Andes: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Los Andes (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rivasseau F. (G) 4. Bellone A. O. 2. Leizza B. 6. Riquelme R. D. 3. Fernandez N. 8. Pereira G. 5. Canete G. 10. Rambert T. 11. Diaz E. 7. Sives T. 20. Martinez F.	1. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 4. Werro V. 2. Silva K. 6. Irazoque A. 3. Gorgerino C. 8. Gobetto J. 5. Bolivar A. 10. Borgnino M. 11. Martinez E. 7. Castellano A. 9. Susvielles J. (C)
Substitutes
. Arce C. 12. Brey M. (G) 14. Carrasco G. D. 17. Gerzel G. 16. Gomez M. 19. Luna E. 13. Marco F. 15. Rodriguez F. 18. Villarreal F.	20. Amilivia T. 14. Ascacibar J. 17. Becker D. 18. Bergara M. 19. Bolzicco T. 13. Fernandez T. 12. Henricot F. (G) 15. Mansilla M. 16. Miori M.
Coaches
Lemos L.	Vazquez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Susvielles J. ↓, Bolzicco T. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Pereira G. (Pen),
60', Castellano A. ↓, Bergara M. ↑,
60', Borgnino M. ↓, Becker D. ↑,
60', Gorgerino C. ↓, Mansilla M. ↑,
65', Sives T. ↓, Gerzel G. ↑,
65', Diaz E. ↓, Luna E. ↑,
73', Arce C. ↓, Canete G. ↑,
74', Werro V. ↓, Miori M. ↑,
81', Gomez M. ↓, Carrasco G. D. ↑,
81', Rambert T. ↓, Rodriguez F. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Los Andes has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alvarado has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Los Andes is a strong favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Los Andes - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.01%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Los Andes de Lomas de Zamora
Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.05.25	Los Andes - All Boys	1:1 ✺
24.05.25	Ferro Carril Oeste - Los Andes	2:0 ✺
10.05.25	Club Almagro - Los Andes	1:0 ✺
03.05.25	Los Andes - Deportivo Madryn	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	San Miguel - Los Andes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLWL
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.06.25	Alvarado - Arsenal Sarandí	0:2 ✺
25.05.25	All Boys - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Alvarado - Deportivo Madryn	0:2 ✺
04.05.25	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	3:0 ✺
27.04.25	Alvarado - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLLW

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