Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 14

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday


	Lota Schwager		Provincial Osorno

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.00	2.50
	2.61	3.13	2.88
	2.86	3.08	2.42	Watch
	2.45	2.95	2.75
	2.62	3.14	2.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (3.05)	3.06 ↑ (3)	2.65 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lota Schwager
35.2%

Draw
30.1%

Provincial Osorno
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30%

30.5%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

30.1%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lota Schwager has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lota Schwager's performance.

Provincial Osorno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lota Schwager than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lota Schwager that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Provincial Osorno than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Provincial Osorno could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lota Schwager - Provincial Osorno Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Silva P. (G) 4. Ambiado A. 10. Bravo D. 20. Fuentes P. 15. Hermosilla B. 21. Jopia Arias C. 14. Navarrete G. 8. Povea L. 2. Reyes J. 18. Salas C. 19. Vergara C.	18. Lara D. (G) 5. Arias J. 9. Bielkiewicz D. 22. Cortez M. 28. Gonzalez D. 8. Gutierrez J. 29. Meneses L. 14. Namoncura S. 4. Navarrete E. 16. Vergara D. 2. Yanez V.
Substitutes
6. Contreras J. J. 12. Fuentes Lagos G. I. (G) 25. Pontigo L. 9. Quiroga L. 23. Torres S. 27. Torres S. 31. Zambrana M.	20. Castro G. 6. Pacheco I. 10. Pezoa M. D. A. 3. Pino D. 1. Retamal D. (G) . Valderrama M. 24. Villegas B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Jopia Arias C. 🟨,
37', Gutierrez J. 🟨,
40', Ambiado A. 🟨,
45', Bielkiewicz D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Jopia Arias C. ↓, Quiroga L. ↑,
46', Salas C. ↓, Contreras J. J. ↑,
54', 0 - 1, Arias J. ⚽,
58', Fuentes P. 🟨,
60', Fuentes P. ↓, Pontigo L. ↑,
60', Ambiado A. ↓, Torres S. ↑,
67', Pacheco I. 🟨,
68', Arias J. ↓, Castro G. ↑,
68', Namoncura S. ↓, Pino D. ↑,
70', Reyes J. 🟥,
73', Navarrete G. ↓, Zambrana M. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Torres S. ⚽,
87', 1 - 2, Bielkiewicz D. ⚽,
90+6', 2 - 2, Hermosilla B. ⚽,

Preview

Provincial Osorno is Qualified for Segunda Division (Promotion ~ Play Offs )

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Provincial Osorno may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lota Schwager has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lota Schwager won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Osorno	6	1	1	4	5:9	-4	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lota Schwager
Chilean Segunda Division
05.07.26	Colchagua - Lota Schwager	0:2 ✺
28.06.26	General Velásquez - Lota Schwager	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	Lota Schwager - Santiago Morning	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	Deportes Linares - Lota Schwager	0:1 ✺
06.06.26	Deportes Rengo - Lota Schwager	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WLTWT
- Provincial Osorno
Chilean Segunda Division
04.07.26	Provincial Osorno - General Velásquez	3:0 ✺
21.06.26	Colchagua - Provincial Osorno	0:0 ✺
06.06.26	Provincial Osorno - Deportes Linares	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Santiago Morning - Provincial Osorno	0:0 ✺
23.05.26	Provincial Osorno - Deportes Rengo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Segunda Division
09.05.26	Provincial Osorno - Lota Schwager	1:0

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