Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 16

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Algarve (Faro/Loulé)


	Louletano		Lagoa

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.2	4.85
	1.8	3.06	4.49
	1.8	3.16	4.5	Watch
	1.75	3	4.4
	1.8	3.06	4.56
	1.8	3.1	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↑ (1.63)	3.1 ↓ (3.42)	4.52 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Louletano
50.9%

Draw
29.1%

Lagoa
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

26.5%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.9%

25.8%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louletano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Lagoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Louletano than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lagoa than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Louletano - Lagoa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

(2 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 4).

Louletano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lagoa is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Louletano is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Louletano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:2. (average 2.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Louletano won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lagoa	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louletano DC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.01.26	Louletano - Sintrense	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	Portimonense B - Louletano	0:3 ✺
20.12.25	Atlético da Malveira - Louletano	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Louletano - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Moncarapachense - Louletano	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LWLTT
- Lagoa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.01.26	Lagoa - Serpa	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Sintrense - Lagoa	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Alcochetense - Lagoa	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Lagoa - Portimonense B	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Lagoa - Oriental	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
07.09.25	Lagoa - Louletano	1:3
23.02.25	Lagoa - Louletano	0:5
27.10.24	Louletano - Lagoa	0:1

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