Match Info

Date: 17 February 2021, Wednesday


	Lucchese		Pro Patria

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.2	2.05
	3.3	3	2.1
	3.2	3	2.15
	3.45	2.9	2.08
	3.75	3.18	2.16
	3.25	3.1	2.2
	3.48	3.2	2.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.99)	3.08 ↓ (3.14)	2.12 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucchese
26.9%

Draw
29.8%

Pro Patria
43.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

29.1%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

20.7%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucchese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Pro Patria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lucchese than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lucchese that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pro Patria than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pro Patria could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lucchese - Pro Patria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 7 in the zone Promotion to Serie C to Promotion to Play Offs).

Lucchese is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Pro Patria is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Pro Patria will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lucchese won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Lucchese won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie C Group A
14.02.21	Como - Lucchese	1:0 ✺
07.02.21	Lucchese - Pro Vercelli	0:0 ✺
03.02.21	Grosseto - Lucchese	2:1 ✺
31.01.21	Lucchese - Novara	1:4 ✺
24.01.21	Pergolettese - Lucchese	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTLLW
- Aurora Pro Patria 1919
Italian Serie C Group A
14.02.21	Pro Patria - Renate	0:0 ✺
07.02.21	Pistoiese - Pro Patria	1:2 ✺
03.02.21	Pro Patria - Olbia	1:0 ✺
30.01.21	Pro Vercelli - Pro Patria	0:0 ✺
24.01.21	Pro Patria - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
22.10.20	Pro Patria - Lucchese	3:0
23.03.19	Lucchese - Pro Patria	3:1
25.11.18	Pro Patria - Lucchese	2:2

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