Match Info

Primera C - Round 17

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday


	Lugano		Ituzaingó

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.8	2.7
	3.24	2.83	2.19
	3.38	2.81	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.45)	2.81 ↓ (3)	2.38 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
29.8%

Draw
32.2%

Ituzaingó
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

30%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

31.7%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugano's form might have worsened.

Ituzaingó has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituzaingó than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ituzaingó, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lugano - Ituzaingó Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Maza J. ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, Vielma P. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+3', 1 - 2, Moreira A. (Pen),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera C (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Lugano has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ituzaingó is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ituzaingó may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Lugano won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lugano
Argentinian Primera C
07.07.25	Deportivo Español - Lugano	1:2 ✺
29.06.25	Lugano - Atlético Claypole	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Justo José de Urquiza - Lugano	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Lugano - El Porvenir	2:0 ✺
20.05.25	Defensores de Cambaceres - Lugano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WTLWL
- CA Ituzaingó
Argentinian Primera C
04.07.25	Ituzaingó - Berazategui	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Deportivo Español - Ituzaingó	0:0 ✺
01.06.25	Atlético Claypole - Ituzaingó	0:1 ✺
24.05.25	Ituzaingó - Deportivo Muñiz	0:0 ✺
20.05.25	Justo José de Urquiza - Ituzaingó	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
29.03.25	Ituzaingó - Lugano	2:0
05.10.24	Lugano - Ituzaingó	1:1
04.05.24	Ituzaingó - Lugano	2:0

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