Match Info

Primera C - Round 12

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday


	Lugano		El Porvenir

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.79	3.09
	2.39	2.84	3.15	Watch
	2.4	2.78	3.11
	2.3	2.88	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.37)	2.82 (2.82)	3.09 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
38.5%

Draw
32.2%

El Porvenir
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

32.4%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

28.3%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

El Porvenir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Porvenir than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Lugano - El Porvenir Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 1 - 0, Pereyra I. ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 0, Alonso N. ⚽,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 10 and 12).

A run of poor results has hit both teams ahead of this match.

Lugano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lugano
Argentinian Primera C
20.05.25	Defensores de Cambaceres - Lugano	2:0 ✺
11.05.25	Lugano - Leandro N. Alem	0:2 ✺
02.05.25	Mercedes - Lugano	1:1 ✺
26.04.25	Lugano - Central Córdoba de Rosario	1:3 ✺
19.04.25	Puerto Nuevo - Lugano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL
- Club El Porvenir
Argentinian Primera C
20.05.25	El Porvenir - Berazategui	0:1 ✺
10.05.25	Ituzaingó - El Porvenir	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	El Porvenir - Deportivo Español	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Atlético Claypole - El Porvenir	4:2 ✺
23.04.25	Central Córdoba de Rosario - El Porvenir	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera C
28.09.24	El Porvenir - Lugano	1:0
28.04.24	Lugano - El Porvenir	2:1
Argentinian Primera D
25.11.23	Lugano - El Porvenir	0:1
21.08.23	El Porvenir - Lugano	3:1
18.03.23	Lugano - El Porvenir	0:1

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