Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: AIL Arena (Lugano) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Milanovic M. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	20:30	Laola1
Germany	20:30	Laola1
Israel	21:30	Sport 1
Switzerland	20:30	Play RTS, Play RTS, RSI La 2, SRF Play, SRF Play
Usa	14:30	SportsEngine Play
International	18:30	OneFootball TV


	Lugano		Maccabi Tel Aviv

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	4.1	Watch
	1.90	3.40	3.50
	1.75	3.45	4.25	Watch
	1.81	3.89	3.99
	1.79	4.03	4.05	Watch
	1.78	3.85	3.9
	1.8	3.96	4.11	Watch
	1.74	3.8	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.02)	3.77 ↑ (3.54)	4.03 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
52.2%

Draw
24.7%

Maccabi Tel Aviv
23.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.1%

26.2%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

24.9%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

Maccabi Tel Aviv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maccabi Tel Aviv than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	10.5%	5.3%

Lugano - Maccabi Tel Aviv Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (1.26) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Users Predictions: Lugano will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lugano will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. von Ballmoos D. (G) 6. Papadopoulos A. 17. Mai L. 3. Delcroix H. 46. Zanotti M. 25. Bislimi U. 8. Grgic A. 27. Dos Santos D. 21. Cimignani Y. 91. Behrens K. 11. Steffen R. (C)	22. Melika O. (G) 6. Asante T. 5. Camara M. 13. Shlomo R. 3. Revivo R. 36. Shahar I. 28. Sissokho I. 42. Peretz D. (C) 77. Davida O. 9. Sokler E. 29. Varela H.
Substitutes
23. Ajdin G. 18. Bichsel J. 22. Castro Espinosa B. D. 28. Gebhardt F. (G) 4. Kelvin D. 14. Kendouci A. 26. Marques M. 30. Moncada D. 39. Ndiaye C. (G) 24. Pihlstrom E.	34. Abu Farkhi S. 23. Azo O. N. 41. Ben Hamo I. 21. Ben Harush N. 60. Ben Simon I. 18. Glazer D. 33. Layous H. 19. Madmon E. 90. Mishpati R. (G) 30. Noy I. 25. Rosen S. 51. Saadia S. (G)
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Miller K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Behrens K. ⚽, Cimignani Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 1 - 1, Shahar I. ⚽, Revivo R. (A),
54', 2 - 1, Grgic A. (Penalty Awarded),
57', Asante T. ↓, Ben Harush N. ↑,
57', Sokler E. ↓, Abu Farkhi S. ↑,
71', Dos Santos D. ↓, Marques M. ↑,
71', Behrens K. ↓, Moncada D. ↑,
81', Steffen R. ↓, Pihlstrom E. ↑,
89', Cimignani Y. ↓, Kendouci A. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Lugano is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Maccabi Tel Aviv is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Lugano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lugano might have a minor edge in this game.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugano	2	2	0	0	8:4	4	6

Outrights of UEFA Europa Conference League for now

Lugano: 0.8%

Last Results with these Odds

Lugano - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.07%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	NSÍ Runavík - Lugano	2:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
09.08.26	Lugano - Zürich	5:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Lugano - NSÍ Runavík	2:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
02.08.26	Grasshoppers - Lugano	1:4 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
29.07.26	Dukagjini - Lugano	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TWWWW
- Maccabi Tel Aviv
Israeli Toto Cup
16.08.26	Maccabi Netanya - Maccabi Tel Aviv	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.08.26	CSKA Sofia - Maccabi Tel Aviv	1:3 ✺
06.08.26	Maccabi Tel Aviv - CSKA Sofia	0:3 ✺
30.07.26	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Sheriff Tiraspol	1:0 ✺
23.07.26	Sheriff Tiraspol - Maccabi Tel Aviv	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWLWW

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