Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: Conejero Sanchez G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, TVG


	Lugo		Ferrol

	1	X	2
	2.15	3	3.2
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.23	3.1	3.33
	2.27	3.08	3.29	Watch
	2.18	2.85	3.25
	2.15	3.04	3.21
	2.16	2.95	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.3)	3 ↓ (3.15)	3.23 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
41.5%

Draw
30.3%

Ferrol
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

29.5%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

27.8%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Ferrol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrol than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Lugo - Ferrol Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez M. (C) 19. Lucero R. 4. Garriz I. 5. Moreno P. 3. Haro P. 20. Ulloa A. 15. Parrilla P. 16. Palma A. 14. Gallar A. 17. Chiqui 11. Dauda M.	1. Diaz L. (G) 2. Miguel 5. Monjonell E. 4. Novoa G. 17. Ramon A. 11. Bujan E. 14. Bernal J. 6. Gonzalez F. (C) 10. Ojeda D. 19. Arroyo R. 20. Alcaina R.
Substitutes
21. Berzal G. 13. Candal J. (G) 9. Costa A. 10. Godoy A. 18. Hermoso K. 7. Morchiladze T. 22. Munoz M. 23. Pascual H. 8. Perera A. 24. Perez S. 6. Presa K. 2. Sanchez Martinez A. N.	16. Blanco R. 15. Castro D. 23. Djanbou S. 8. Esquerdo V. 18. Eto'o E. 13. Fernandez C. G. (G) 21. Garcia A. 22. Garcia S. 9. Ropero U.
Coaches
Borja Fernandez	Vazquez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Palma A. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Gallar A. ⚽, Palma A. (A),
45+4', Dauda M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Alcaina R. ↓, Eto'o E. ↑,
50', Parrilla P. 🟨,
57', Ojeda D. 🟨,
60', Haro P. ↓, Perez S. ↑,
61', Gallar A. ↓, Godoy A. ↑,
64', Eto'o E. 🟨,
65', Bujan E. ↓, Blanco R. ↑,
66', Arroyo R. ↓, Ropero U. ↑,
69', Lucero R. 🟨,
71', Ulloa A. ↓, Morchiladze T. ↑,
71', Chiqui ↓, Presa K. ↑,
79', Dauda M. ↓, Perera A. ↑,
79', Gonzalez F. ↓, Esquerdo V. ↑,
87', Novoa G. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
90', Morchiladze T. 🟥,

Preview

Lugo has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Ferrol have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Lugo holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Lugo has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:3 (averaging 1.3:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Lugo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:1 goals (averaging 1.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lugo	6	5	1	0	9:3	6	16
8	Racing Club Ferrol	6	3	1	2	7:5	2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Lugo - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.37%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.09.26	Zamora - Lugo	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Lugo - Coria	1:0 ✺
04.09.26	Ponferradina - Lugo	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Unionistas de Salamanca - Lugo	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
21.08.26	Lugo - Ourense CF	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WWTWW
- Racing Club Ferrol
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.09.26	Ferrol - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Ferrol - Real Unión de Irun	3:2 ✺
06.09.26	CD Extremadura - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Arenas Club de Getxo - Ferrol	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.08.26	Ferrol - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.02.26	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1
21.09.25	Lugo - Ferrol	2:1
Club Friendly
30.12.22	Ferrol - Lugo	1:1
06.08.22	Lugo - Ferrol	1:0

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