Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 26

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, TVG 2


	Lugo		Tarazona

	1	X	2
	1.91	2.9	4.1
	1.98	2.9	3.75
	2.06	3.09	3.9
	2	3.05	3.86	Watch
	2	3.02	3.98
	1.98	2.9	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.29)	2.98 ↑ (2.97)	3.89 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
45.9%

Draw
30.7%

Tarazona
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

30.9%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

30.1%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugo's performance.

Tarazona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tarazona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tarazona than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Lugo - Tarazona Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lavin M. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 23. Rodriguez J. 4. Ruiz E. 3. Zoilo A. 10. Cabo J. 8. Gonzalez Y. 24. Martinez R. 7. Hernandez R. 15. Reniero N. 17. Ochoa M.	1. Fuoli D. (G) 17. Lopez A. 2. Camus S. 5. Murria V. 4. Trilles M. 22. Llacer L. 7. Areso J. 12. Cedeno E. 23. Rico M. 19. Fuentes A. 21. Pradera M.
Substitutes
19. Afriyie J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 21. Ceberio J. 26. Freire A. 9. Mendoza B. 33. Pereira P. 11. Perero G. 20. Sanchez M. 22. Vaquero	20. Aguero 18. Alvarez M. 14. Buyla J. 10. Mena P. 6. Mencia J. 13. Ramirez Y. (G) 11. Rivas L. 15. Rodriguez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', Martinez R. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Fuentes A. ⚽,
34', Gonzalez Y. 🟨,
45', Hernandez R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ochoa M. ↓, Perero G. ↑,
46', Cabo J. ↓, Afriyie J. ↑,
46', Hernandez R. ↓, Mendoza B. ↑,
58', 0 - 2, Fuentes A. ⚽,
58', Martinez R. ↓, Ceberio J. ↑,
72', Areso J. ↓, Rivas L. ↑,
72', Cedeno E. ↓, Mena P. ↑,
74', Mendoza B. 🟨,
80', Mena P. 🟨,
81', 1 - 2, Mendoza B. (Pen),
81', Gonzalez Y. ↓, Vaquero ↑,
85', Pradera M. 🟨,
88', Fuentes A. ↓, Buyla J. ↑,
90+2', Llacer L. ↓, Alvarez M. ↑,
90+2', Rico M. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
90+2', Ruiz E. 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 13).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Tarazona could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lugo is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lugo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:2 (average 0:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.02.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	2:2 ✺
16.02.25	Lugo - Sestao	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	FC Andorra - Lugo	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Lugo - Osasuna B	3:1 ✺
19.01.25	Lugo - Leonesa	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWLWL
- SD Tarazona
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.02.25	Tarazona - Osasuna B	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Arenteiro - Tarazona	2:1 ✺
08.02.25	Tarazona - Real Sociedad B	0:1 ✺
31.01.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Tarazona	0:1 ✺
26.01.25	Tarazona - Zamora	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.12.24	Tarazona - Lugo	0:0
07.04.24	Lugo - Tarazona	0:1
13.01.24	Tarazona - Lugo	1:0

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