Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 14

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, TVG 2


	Athletic Bilbao B		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.2
	2.28	3	3.15
	2.29	3.05	3.32
	2.29	2.97	3.07
	2.2	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.66)	3 ↑ (2.84)	3.17 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao B
40.6%

Draw
30.5%

Lugo
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

32.2%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

34.4%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Athletic Bilbao B's performance.

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Athletic Bilbao B that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Athletic Bilbao B will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Lugo will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Santos M. (G) 15. Alday I. 4. Dunabeitia A. 3. De Luis J. 12. Barandalla M. 18. Garcia E. 8. Lete E. 11. Bujan E. 10. Sanchez I. 31. Conde A. 7. Hierro A.	1. Martinez M. (C) 20. Lopez I. 4. Trigueros P. 16. Jose Amo 17. Caballo D. 8. Balboa A. 5. Carbonell A. 9. Celorio N. 22. Samanes S. 19. Unzueta I. 23. Junior L.
Substitutes
5. Ebro Cortina E. 1. Gamen E. (G) 6. Gibelalde M. 23. Gift E. 17. Huestamendia P. 19. Louis-Jean J. 9. Sanz I. 20. Vizcay T.	3. Garriz I. 24. Gaya J. 7. Gonzalez J. 2. Merino J. 6. Nicholas N. 11. Pastrana V. 13. Piedra I. (G) 14. Presa K. 18. Roson D. 21. Teofilovic O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Trigueros P. 🟨,
38', Carbonell A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', 1 - 0, Hierro A. ⚽,
64', Celorio N. ↓, Pastrana V. ↑,
64', Samanes S. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
72', Jose Amo 🟨,
85', 2 - 0, Sanchez I. (Pen),
87', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 and 10).

Athletic Bilbao B is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lugo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Athletic Bilbao B won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic Bilbao B won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
16.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
12.11.25	Sunderland U21 - Athletic Bilbao B	7:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.11.25	Tenerife - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Unionistas de Salamanca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WWLWT
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.11.25	Lugo - Pontevedra	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Ponferradina - Lugo	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Lugo	1:1 ✺
31.10.25	Lugo - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Lugo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.02.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	2:2
02.11.24	Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0
Spanish LaLiga2
22.05.16	Lugo - Athletic Bilbao B	2:0
21.12.15	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	1:1

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