Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 18

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	Lugo B		Noia

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.25	4.55
	1.81	3.17	4.55
	2.30	2.19	5.29	Watch
	1.85	2.9	4.4
	1.89	3.14	4.54
	1.8	3.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.69)	2.96 ↓ (3.4)	4.64 ↓ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo B
48.8%

Draw
31.3%

Noia
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

26.9%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

26.1%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lugo B's form might have worsened.

Noia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo B than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lugo B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noia than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Lugo B - Noia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Lugo B is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Noia's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lugo B is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lugo B won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo B
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
18.01.26	Lugo B - RC Villalbes	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Barbadás - Lugo B	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Lugo B - Alondras	2:1 ✺
13.12.25	Lugo B - Viveiro	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Gran Peña - Lugo B	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TTWTW
- CF Noia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
18.01.26	Gran Peña - Noia	5:0 ✺
11.01.26	Noia - Silva SD	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Céltiga - Noia	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Noia - Juventud Cambados	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Boiro - Noia	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
07.09.25	Noia - Lugo B	1:1

Lugo B - Noia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide