Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 13

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitânia		Atlético CP

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.3	3.6
	1.86	3.35	3.8
	1.88	3.44	4.22
	1.85	3.49	4.2	Watch
	1.79	3.38	4.12
	1.86	3.35	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.94)	3.39 ↑ (3.26)	3.96 ↑ (3.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
49.7%

Draw
27.1%

Atlético CP
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

28.1%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

27.1%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Atlético CP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Lusitânia - Atlético CP Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Lusitânia (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Ricardo M. (G) 12. Arsenio 29. Cerveira T. 4. Collard D. 21. Joao Vasco 28. Mesquita T. 11. Pereira M. 10. Ribeiro S. 88. Teixeira M. 8. Tokinho Doria 14. Valente M. (C)	1. Ribeiro L. (G) 23. Almeida B. 10. Caleb 28. Cruz H. 5. Durand V. 11. Franco E. 4. Henriques D. 45. Junior T. 60. Marques R. 31. Paulinho (C) 17. Silva D.
Substitutes
7. Avto 85. Castro D. 1. Cioletti G. (G) 20. Faria R. 5. Oliveira J. 18. Pereira D. 80. Renato Luis 3. Silverio	7. Barandas M. 30. Dias J. (G) 20. Gonzalez F. 14. Joaozinho 77. Mendes J. 9. Nicolas Souza 88. Pinto P. 8. Pipo 13. Talison

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Arsenio ⚽,
33', Cruz H. ↓, Pipo ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Silva D. ↓, Nicolas Souza ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Valente M. ⚽,
60', Marques R. 🟨,
63', Henriques D. 🟨,
64', Junior T. ↓, Joaozinho ↑,
69', Ribeiro S. ↓, Avto ↑,
80', Joao Vasco ↓, Castro D. ↑,
81', Arsenio ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
81', Durand V. ↓, Pinto P. ↑,
81', Teixeira M. ↓, Renato Luis ↑,
81', Pipo ↓, Barandas M. ↑,
83', Pinto P. 🟨,
90', Pereira M. ↓, Faria R. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 6).

Lusitânia is Qualified for Liga Portugal 2

Lusitânia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atlético CP has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lusitânia is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lusitânia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Lusitânia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
03.05.25	Lusitânia - 1 Dezembro	2:1 ✺
26.04.25	Amarante - Lusitânia	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Lusitânia - Fafe	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:0 ✺
05.04.25	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTWLW
- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
03.05.25	Atlético CP - Amarante	3:1 ✺
26.04.25	Fafe - Atlético CP	2:0 ✺
19.04.25	Atlético CP - Varzim	0:2 ✺
13.04.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
15.03.25	Atlético CP - Lusitânia	0:0
12.05.24	Atlético CP - Lusitânia	1:0
17.03.24	Lusitânia - Atlético CP	3:1

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