Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 10

Date: 20 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa (Lourosa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Lusitânia		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2	3.25	3.2
	2.14	3.25	3.05
	2.29	3.25	3.28
	2.26	3.18	3.24	Watch
	2.14	3.25	3.38	Watch
	2.14	3.25	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2)	3.24 ↑ (3.2)	3.2 ↓ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
42.7%

Draw
28.5%

Fafe
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

28.3%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

27%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lusitânia - Fafe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Lusitânia will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cioletti G. (G) 28. Mesquita T. (C) 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 29. Cerveira T. 6. Martins H. 8. Tokinho Doria 80. Renato Luis 10. Ribeiro S. 77. Goba Zakpa 11. Pereira M.	98. Alves C. (G) 21. Pereira M. 4. Teixeira L. 26. Batista J. 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. (C) 8. Braga V. 20. Amorim J. 12. Farias E. 7. Leite T. 22. Bruninho
Substitutes
12. Arsenio 7. Avto 85. Castro D. 21. Joao Vasco 5. Oliveira J. 18. Pereira D. 41. Ricardo M. (G) 88. Teixeira M. 14. Valente M.	1. Enes Guimaraes F. (G) 9. Kodama R. 6. Lucas Vital 5. Nandinho 11. Picas 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 10. Serra Matos P. M. 3. Silva G. 2. Sousa B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Ribeiro S. (Pen),
40', Cioletti G. ↓, Ricardo M. ↑,
44', Braga V. 🟨,
45', Faria B. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 1, Leite T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Vigario J. ↓, Nandinho ↑,
52', Amorim J. ↓, Ribeiro Oliveira J. ↑,
54', Nandinho 🟨,
64', Renato Luis ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
64', Ribeiro S. ↓, Arsenio ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Goba Zakpa ⚽,
71', Castro D. 🟨,
73', Bruninho ↓, Picas ↑,
73', Pereira M. ↓, Serra Matos P. M. ↑,
80', Braga V. ↓, Kodama R. ↑,
83', Goba Zakpa ↓, Valente M. ↑,
83', Tokinho Doria ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
84', Amorim J. 🟥,
90+5', Martins H. 🟨,
90+7', Arsenio 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lusitânia won 4.

Lusitânia is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Fafe is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lusitânia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Lusitânia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Lusitânia won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19:10 (average 2.1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Lusitânia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:6 (average 2.3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
12.04.25	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:0 ✺
05.04.25	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Lusitânia - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Atlético CP - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
08.03.25	1 Dezembro - Lusitânia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWWTW
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
13.04.25	Fafe - Amarante	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	1 Dezembro - Fafe	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Fafe - Varzim	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Sporting Lisbon B - Fafe	0:0 ✺
09.03.25	Fafe - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.25	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2
07.12.24	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2
25.08.24	Lusitânia - Fafe	4:0
17.12.23	Lusitânia - Fafe	2:3
03.09.23	Fafe - Lusitânia	0:3
16.04.22	Fafe - Lusitânia	0:0
19.03.22	Lusitânia - Fafe	0:2

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