Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Sampaio (Porto)

Referee: Carvalho H. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Lusitânia		Farense

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.1	2.45	Watch
	2.35	3	2.75
	2.82	3.1	2.45
	3.1	3.2	2.56
	1.68	3.79	4.78	Watch
	2.9	3.13	2.47	Watch
	2.38	3.1	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.66)	3.2 ↑ (3.14)	2.89 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lusitânia
37%

Draw
29.9%

Farense
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

29.9%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

29.9%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	75%	0%

Lusitânia - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Lusitânia will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Farense (2.03) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lusitânia (votes: 1 - 25%). Farense (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Vitor Hugo (G) 74. Braga G. 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 16. Rocha L. 8. Tokinho Doria 88. Teixeira M. 21. Joao Vasco 12. Arsenio (C) 77. Tiago Dias 9. Silva J.	99. Araujo B. (G) 43. Dario Miranda 3. D'Agrella L. 5. Romero F. 6. Derick Poloni 80. Ndiaye A. 29. Claudio Falcao 88. Teixeira R. 77. Matias M. (C) 90. Sangare B. 21. Jaiminho
Substitutes
6. Alhassan I. 29. Cerveira T. 60. Danny 20. Do Marcolino F. 27. Fabinho 3. Josue Sa 19. Palacios A. 1. Ricardo M. (G) 5. Silverio	17. Candeias A. 7. Costa R. 25. Dorregaray D. 16. Geovanny 8. Menino M. 14. Poveda D. 70. Rivaldo 20. Semedo Y. 30. Tannander J. (G)
Coaches
Miguel Pedro	Silas

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Tiago Dias ⚽, Arsenio (A),
14', 1 - 1, Matias M. ⚽,
38', 1 - 2, Derick Poloni (Pen),
42', Joao Vasco 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Joao Vasco ↓, Danny ↑,
55', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
58', Braga G. ↓, Fabinho ↑,
68', Dario Miranda ↓, Rivaldo ↑,
68', Jaiminho ↓, Semedo Y. ↑,
70', Collard D. 🟨,
73', Rivaldo 🟨,
74', Arsenio ↓, Do Marcolino F. ↑,
74', Teixeira M. ↓, Palacios A. ↑,
76', Teixeira R. ↓, Menino M. ↑,
83', Rocha L. ↓, Cerveira T. ↑,
84', Matias M. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
84', Sangare B. ↓, Poveda D. ↑,
85', Araujo B. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 10).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Lusitânia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 2
28.09.25	Feirense - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Castrense - Lusitânia	0:5 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Lusitânia - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Felgueiras - Lusitânia	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Lusitânia - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWTLT
- SC Farense
Portuguese Liga 2
28.09.25	Farense - Chaves	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Vidago - Farense	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Leixões - Farense	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Farense - Marítimo	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Porto B - Farense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
22.09.13	Farense - Lusitânia	3:2 penalties

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