The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Farense 47.4%
Draw 28%
Penafiel 24.5%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
48.2%
27.4%
24.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
50.3%
28.6%
23.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Farense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
Farense - Penafiel Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
BTTS - yes (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
97. Buntic F. (G) 78. Alex Pinto 44. Zolotic N. 37. Silva G. 22. Herrero T. 27. Mattheus 29. Claudio Falcao (C) 10. Singh S. 17. Candeias A. 11. Oliveira N. 7. Resende J.
1. Oliveira Miguel (C) 5. Sanchez J. 6. Pica A. 2. lano Imbene 33. Schutte R. 21. Pedro Sa 3. Moreira C. 7. Douglas Borel 17. Pinto J. 9. Svensson M. 11. Fuentes J.
Substitutes
18. Cuba 3. D'Agrella L. 43. Dario Miranda 5. Da Rocha Borges R. 6. Derick Poloni 9. Gabriel Barbosa 8. Menino M. 15. Nduquidi J. 19. Oliveira L. 88. Rafinha 1. Tannander J. (G) 70. Victor Barbara
85. Augusto C. 10. Davo 99. Mendes C. 14. Mere J. 4. Miguel J. 23. Oliveira D. 38. Oliveira M. 13. Puerto E. (G) 28. Ribeiro T. (G) 64. Sampaio T. 79. Teixeira T. 50. Varela F.
Coaches
Jose Faria
Aira J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 3)
4', 0 - 1, Schutte R. ⚽, Pinto J. (A),
6', Pedro Sa 🟨,
8', Oliveira N. 🟨,
11', 0 - 2, Schutte R. ⚽,
14', 0 - 3, Fuentes J. ⚽,
45+3', Claudio Falcao 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Fuentes J. ↓, Varela F. ↑,
46', Claudio Falcao ↓, Nduquidi J. ↑,
46', Oliveira N. ↓, Cuba ↑,
46', Resende J. ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
55', Singh S. 🟨,
62', Herrero T. ↓, Derick Poloni ↑,
62', Singh S. ↓, Menino M. ↑,
65', 1 - 3, Candeias A. ⚽,
67', Schutte R. ↓, Davo ↑,
78', Nduquidi J. 🟥,
83', Sanchez J. ↓, Miguel J. ↑,
83', Svensson M. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
87', 1 - 4, Mendes C. ⚽,
90+1', Pinto J. ↓, Teixeira T. ↑,
90+2', Alex Pinto 🟨,
Preview
One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Liga Portugal (Promotion: ) and 4th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Farense won 3.
Farense has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Penafiel has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Farense may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Farense is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.
In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Farense has recorded 5 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:15 (averaging 1.1:1.1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Farense against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:5 goals (averaging 0.9:0.7 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Penafiel
8
5
1
2
18:8
10
16
5
SC Farense
8
4
2
2
14:10
4
14
Last Results with these Odds
Penafiel - the odds 3.83 are the expected chance of winning is 24.41%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.
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Buntic F. (G) 
Alex Pinto 
Zolotic N. 
Herrero T. 
Mattheus 
Singh S. 
lano Imbene 
Fuentes J. 
Nduquidi J. 
Oliveira L. 
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