Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 8

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio de São Luís (Faro)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1


	Farense		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.58	3.8	5.3
	1.59	4.01	5.4
	1.70	3.59	4.93	Watch
	1.58	3.83	5.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.66)	3.8 ↓ (3.84)	5.35 ↑ (5.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Farense
58.1%

Draw
24.5%

Penafiel
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

24.5%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

23.7%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Farense than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Farense - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Farense will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Penafiel will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Farense: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Penafiel (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Penafiel (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Araujo B. (G) 70. Rivaldo 5. Romero F. 3. D'Agrella L. 6. Derick Poloni 88. Teixeira R. 16. Geovanny 80. Ndiaye A. 21. Jaiminho 90. Sangare B. 77. Matias M. (C)	32. Femenias J. (G) 22. Xico 4. Miguel J. (C) 3. Gustavo Fernandes 14. Pereira B. 8. Reko 17. Kebe I. 88. Alves R. 20. Santos A. 7. Vieira P. 37. Davo
Substitutes
17. Candeias A. 7. Costa R. 25. Dorregaray D. 34. Herrero T. 8. Menino M. 14. Poveda D. 26. Ruben 20. Semedo Y. 30. Tannander J. (G)	31. Balde M. (G) 36. Dani Molina 61. Injai M. 2. lano Imbene 27. Negrao G. 21. Pedro Sa 95. Sery J. 10. Silva J. 9. Suker H.
Coaches
Silas	Aira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Rivaldo 🟨,
45+2', Jaiminho 🟨,
45+3', Femenias J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jaiminho ↓, Candeias A. ↑,
46', Rivaldo ↓, Ruben ↑,
46', Pereira B. ↓, lano Imbene ↑,
49', D'Agrella L. 🟨,
63', Teixeira R. ↓, Semedo Y. ↑,
63', Matias M. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
64', Alves R. ↓, Suker H. ↑,
64', Vieira P. ↓, Negrao G. ↑,
72', Geovanny 🟨,
76', Sangare B. ↓, Poveda D. ↑,
76', Gustavo Fernandes 🟨,
76', 🟨,
83', Santos A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
89', Davo ↓, Pedro Sa ↑,
90+1', Suker H. 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Farense won 3.

Farense is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Penafiel has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Penafiel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Farense has had a series of away games.

In this match, Farense is considered a favorite.

We predict that Farense will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Farense won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:14. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Farense won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Farense
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Marco 09 - Farense	0:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
04.10.25	Lusitânia - Farense	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Farense - Chaves	0:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Vidago - Farense	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Leixões - Farense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WWLWW
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
19.10.25	Penafiel - Feirense	1:2 ✺
05.10.25	Benfica B - Penafiel	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Penafiel - Felgueiras	2:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Portimonense B - Penafiel	2:1 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.25	Lusitânia - Penafiel	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
22.04.23	Farense - Penafiel	2:1
05.11.22	Penafiel - Farense	0:2
19.03.22	Penafiel - Farense	1:3
01.11.21	Farense - Penafiel	2:2
12.01.20	Penafiel - Farense	3:0
19.04.19	Farense - Penafiel	1:1
23.12.18	Penafiel - Farense	2:3

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